L’École des cotesFrançais
Macará v Alianza Atlético
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Macará (Local)
Prévision 69.65%1.44cote équitable
EV -1.79%
Avantage -1.27%
Kelly -4.37%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.41
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.67%69.30%69.55%71.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.281.331.331.4178.13%75.27%75.19%70.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Alianza Atlético (Visiteur)
Prévision 9.92%10.08cote équitable
EV +2.99%
Avantage +0.288%
Kelly +0.319%
Croissance +0.010%
avec la cote maximale 10.38
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
9.09%9.91%9.96%12.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.509.229.5010.3813.33%10.85%10.53%9.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 20.43%4.90cote équitable
EV +4.17%
Avantage +0.818%
Kelly +1.02%
Croissance +0.042%
avec la cote maximale 5.10
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.01%20.79%20.49%22.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.564.605.1025.00%21.93%21.74%19.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (27 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.29%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.01%EV +4.17%E +0.818%K +1.02%G +0.042% | 3.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Casumo | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.62%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-21 22:19 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.43%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.38I 9.63%NM 9.09%EV +2.99%E +0.288%K +0.319%G +0.010% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.47%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 01:30 |
| DraftKings | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| SportsBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| 1xBet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.47%EV -1.79%E -1.27%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.19I 12.21%NM 11.62%EV -18.74%E -2.29%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -7.06%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -10.15%E -7.87%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| betfred_uk | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.73%EV -7.36%E -5.54%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coral | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.03%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -25.58%E -3.41%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.37%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.62%E -2.58%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| William Hill | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.33%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -14.21%E -3.38%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 01:09 |
| NordicBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -4.58%E -3.34%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -7.72%E -0.830%K -0.930%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -15.23%E -3.67%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.61% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91% | 0.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.00% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.00% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.00% | 2.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |