The School of Odds

Club Cienciano v Lanus

2026-07-30 00:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Club Cienciano (Local)

Prediction 48.38%2.07fair odd
EV -0.813%
Edge -0.396%
Kelly -0.774%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.78%48.15%48.38%50.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.751.941.942.0557%52%51%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.446%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%23.81%23.76%26.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.753.754.1531%27%27%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.86%3.59fair odd
EV -0.547%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.213%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.60%28.05%27.86%29.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.323.5733%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.77%EV -0.813%E -0.396%K -0.774%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.16%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%EV -0.547%E -0.153%K -0.213%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-23 14:45
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.23%E -1.62%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -13.64%E -4.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 15:20
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.23%E -1.62%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -13.64%E -4.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 15:20
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.23%E -1.62%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -13.64%E -4.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 15:25
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.23%E -1.62%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -13.64%E -4.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 15:25
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 47.50%EV -4.68%E -2.38%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.89%EV -10.67%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.61%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-23 19:30
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -5.17%E -2.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -16.85%E -4.81%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 14:35
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.65%E -2.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -16.85%E -4.81%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 14:35
Coolbet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.07%EV -6.13%E -3.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -1.41%E -0.339%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 14:04
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -7.10%E -3.70%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -6.16%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-23 19:25
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -7.59%E -3.97%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -16.85%E -4.81%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-23 14:35
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.59%E -3.97%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -16.43%E -5.48%K -8.21%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-23 14:05
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 45.78%EV -7.59%E -3.97%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.90%EV -22.79%E -7.01%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-23 14:35
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -9.04%E -4.81%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.34%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -2.50%E -0.713%K -0.999%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-23 16:45
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -11.46%E -6.26%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 16:45
Unibet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 49.66%EV -15.33%E -8.76%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.18%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.16%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-23 16:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 49.74%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%13.6%2026-07-23 16:45