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Club Cienciano v Lanus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Club Cienciano (Local)
Prediction 39.22%2.55fair odd
EV +0.022%
Edge +0.009%
Kelly +0.014%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.22%39.21%39.28%42.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.322.312.5546.30%43.18%43.29%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lanus (Visit)
Prediction 30.79%3.25fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.484%
Kelly +0.695%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%30.80%30.73%32.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.063.043.3035.71%32.70%32.95%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.99%3.33fair odd
EV +0.461%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.196%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%30.00%29.99%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.3534.48%32.05%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Cienciano (Local): 39.22%; Lanus (Visit): 30.79%; Draw: 29.99%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.17%EV -10.57%E -4.64%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.13%EV +1.60%E +0.484%K +0.695%G +0.011% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV +0.461%E +0.138%K +0.196%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -12.53%E -5.62%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +0.058%E +0.018%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -2.54%E -0.781%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -12.53%E -5.62%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +0.058%E +0.018%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -2.54%E -0.781%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -12.53%E -5.62%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +0.058%E +0.018%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -2.54%E -0.781%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -12.53%E -5.62%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +0.058%E +0.018%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -2.54%E -0.781%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -3.90%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -3.02%E -0.959%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -15.28%E -7.07%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.959%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -15.28%E -7.07%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.959%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -15.28%E -7.07%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.959%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.17%EV -15.28%E -7.07%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -3.02%E -0.959%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.56%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.82%E -3.33%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -4.56%E -1.47%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.04%E -2.27%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-30 00:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.82%E -3.33%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.10%E -2.00%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-30 00:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -9.00%E -3.88%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -6.10%E -2.00%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -8.54%E -2.80%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 00:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.75%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.56%EV -7.02%E -2.33%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -3.74%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.04%E -1.26%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.75%E -5.22%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.64%E -2.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.04%E -1.26%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-30 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV +0.022%E +0.009%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -9.18%E -3.11%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -7.04%E -2.27%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -3.90%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -9.18%E -3.11%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.54%E -1.76%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.95%EV -7.82%E -3.33%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -9.18%E -3.11%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -8.54%E -2.80%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.78%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.33%E -3.94%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.78%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -11.33%E -3.94%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.03%E -4.49%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -11.75%E -5.22%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -12.26%E -4.30%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-30 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.78%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -13.80%E -4.93%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -10.03%E -3.34%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.8% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.20% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93% | 1.2% | 2026-07-30 00:25 |
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