The School of Odds

Caracas FC v Independiente Santa Fe

2026-07-31 00:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Caracas FC (Local)

Prediction 34.84%2.87fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.44%34.84%35.03%36.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.622.7742%39%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Independiente Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 35.77%2.80fair odd
EV -0.921%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.44%35.77%36.40%36.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.7742%39%39%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.660%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.17%29.39%28.56%31.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.163.253.3534%32%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.77I 36.10%NM 35.37%EV -3.48%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.37%EV -0.921%E -0.332%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.25%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-24 12:00
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -7.67%E -2.89%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.79%E -3.45%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -3.02%E -0.915%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 11:10
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.67%E -2.89%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -8.79%E -3.45%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 11:10
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -6.29%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:40
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -6.29%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:50
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -6.29%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:50
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -6.29%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 11:50
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -9.41%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.58%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 13:10
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -9.41%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.58%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-24 11:10
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 35.79%EV -10.10%E -3.92%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.91%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.660%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-24 13:05
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -12.89%E -5.16%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -10.58%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-24 11:09
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -12.89%E -5.16%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.58%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -3.02%E -0.915%K -1.31%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-24 11:25
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -16.38%E -6.82%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -14.16%E -5.90%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-24 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%NM 34.98%2.44I 40.98%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.90%13.5%2026-07-24 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05