The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Caracas FC v Independiente Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 00:30 UTC

Final: Caracas FC 0–3 Independiente Santa Fe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Caracas FC (Local)

Prediction 30.64%3.26fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.337%
Kelly +0.483%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.89%30.63%30.72%31.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.093.093.3034.84%32.37%32.36%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 39.70%2.52fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.54%39.83%39.53%41.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.282.302.4045.87%43.78%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.66%3.37fair odd
EV -0.645%
Edge -0.193%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.54%29.75%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.133.3534.48%31.98%32.00%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caracas FC (Local): 30.64%; Independiente Santa Fe (Visit): 39.70%; Draw: 29.66%. For Caracas FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.22%EV +1.11%E +0.337%K +0.483%G +0.005%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -7.89%E -3.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.22%EV -2.13%E -0.645%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-31 00:24
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.420%E -0.129%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -10.67%E -4.74%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 23:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.420%E -0.129%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -10.67%E -4.74%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 23:49
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.420%E -0.129%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -10.67%E -4.74%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 23:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.420%E -0.129%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -10.67%E -4.74%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 23:49
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 29.95%EV -2.87%E -0.906%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.92%EV -7.89%E -3.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.12%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 00:24
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.70%E -2.85%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.58%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-31 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -13.45%E -6.17%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-30 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -13.45%E -6.17%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-30 23:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -13.45%E -6.17%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-30 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -13.45%E -6.17%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-30 23:49
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.72%E -1.96%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-31 00:24
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -10.67%E -4.74%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-31 00:10
Coolbet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -5.63%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.58%EV -6.70%E -2.85%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -0.645%E -0.193%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 21:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.53%EV -5.91%E -2.49%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.58%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-31 00:25
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.70%E -2.85%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.58%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.51%E -2.31%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 00:25
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-31 00:19
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-31 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-31 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-31 00:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.66%E -5.75%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-31 00:10
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.66%E -5.75%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-31 00:10
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -8.69%E -2.92%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -5.51%E -2.31%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-31 00:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.76%E -4.08%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 00:24
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.89%EV -12.06%E -4.20%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.54%EV -8.69%E -3.78%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.57%EV -13.99%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-31 00:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.78%0.2%2026-07-31 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.78%0.2%2026-07-31 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.78%0.2%2026-07-31 00:25
Smarkets◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86%1.5%2026-07-31 00:25

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