The School of Odds

Bragantino-SP v Sporting Cristal

2026-07-30 00:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 67.66%1.48fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -11.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.83%67.68%67.79%71.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.361.4175%73%74%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sporting Cristal (Visit)

Prediction 12.47%8.02fair odd
EV +7.85%
Edge +0.907%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 8.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.30%12.63%12.18%14.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.007.277.008.6517%14%14%12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.87%5.03fair odd
EV +12.08%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +2.60%
Growth +0.315%

assuming max odds 5.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.33%19.69%20.02%21.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.154.634.605.6424%22%22%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 71.36%EV -7.31%E -5.33%K -19.75%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 11.30%EV +7.85%E +0.907%K +1.03%G +0.081%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.33%EV +12.08%E +2.14%K +2.60%G +0.315%2.3%2026-07-23 13:40
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 69.45%EV -9.34%E -6.97%K -27.46%G +0.000%7.59I 13.18%NM 12.26%EV -5.37%E -0.707%K -0.815%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.28%EV +1.15%E +0.227%K +0.282%G +0.003%7.4%2026-07-23 14:30
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.02%EV -6.63%E -4.80%K -17.45%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV +2.86%E +0.347%K +0.395%G +0.011%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.44%EV -2.62%E -0.535%K -0.672%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 14:04
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -12.72%E -1.82%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -6.60%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 13:39
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.70%EV -9.61%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -6.60%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 13:45
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -0.256%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 14:04
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -0.256%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 14:05
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -0.256%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 14:05
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -0.256%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 14:05
Codere (IT)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -15.22%E -2.24%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.15%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 13:40
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -12.72%E -1.82%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -8.58%E -1.87%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 13:38
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -18.96%E -2.92%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.57%E -2.35%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 13:40
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.01%E -7.53%K -30.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -12.72%E -1.82%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.57%E -2.35%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-23 13:44
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.74%EV -4.60%E -3.26%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.43%EV -13.97%E -2.02%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.83%EV -11.56%E -2.60%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 19:05
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -7.98%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -18.96%E -2.92%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -16.53%E -3.94%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-23 14:05
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 65.01%EV -10.01%E -7.53%K -30.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.41%EV -25.19%E -4.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.59%EV -16.53%E -3.94%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-23 13:44
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 64.83%EV -9.34%E -6.97%K -27.46%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.24%EV -23.95%E -3.93%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.93%EV -17.53%E -4.22%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-23 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%14.0%2026-07-23 13:40