Language:English
Junior FC v Palmeiras-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Junior FC (Local)
Prediction 20.45%4.89fair odd
EV +27.80%
Edge +4.45%
Kelly +5.30%
Growth +1.47%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.58%20.22%20.43%21.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.894.506.2525.00%20.45%22.22%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palmeiras-SP (Visit)
Prediction 52.46%1.91fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.99%52.60%52.53%57.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.731.751.8363.69%57.80%57.31%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.09%3.69fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.304%
Kelly -0.419%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.44%27.18%27.04%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.403.6533.33%29.43%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Junior FC (Local): 20.45%; Palmeiras-SP (Visit): 52.46%; Draw: 27.09%. For Junior FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.89. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +27.80%E +4.45%K +5.30%G +1.47% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.55%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%EV -1.11%E -0.304%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +27.80%E +4.45%K +5.30%G +1.47% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.55%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%EV -1.11%E -0.304%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -13.97%E -8.52%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -15.02%E -9.27%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.57%EV -17.12%E -10.83%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.57%EV -17.12%E -10.83%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.72%EV -17.64%E -11.24%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.92I 20.33%NM 19.02%EV +0.608%E +0.124%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.72%E -5.01%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.20%EV -6.80%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.87%EV -1.23%E -0.255%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.02%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.11%EV -4.09%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -1.85%E -0.385%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.53%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.62%EV -3.01%E -0.840%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.68%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.68%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.20%E -4.69%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -4.91%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.68%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -7.34%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.06%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 00:23 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -4.53%E -2.49%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.20%E -4.69%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.39%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-08 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -12.40%E -7.42%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -18.72%E -6.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.00%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.00%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.82%EV -11.35%E -6.71%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.89%EV -10.05%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-09 00:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -14.12%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -7.67%E -4.36%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 20.98%EV -15.14%E -3.65%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.82%EV -11.87%E -7.07%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -13.30%E -4.16%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -18.20%E -4.55%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.95% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74% | 1.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |