La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Junior FC v Palmeiras-SP
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Junior FC (Local)
Predicción 20.45%4.89momio equitativo
EV +27.80%
Ventaja +4.45%
Kelly +5.30%
Crecimiento +1.47%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.58%20.22%20.43%21.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.894.506.2525.00%20.45%22.22%16.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Palmeiras-SP (Visitante)
Predicción 52.46%1.91momio equitativo
EV -4.00%
Ventaja -2.19%
Kelly -4.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.99%52.60%52.53%57.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.731.751.8363.69%57.80%57.31%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 27.09%3.69momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.304%
Kelly -0.419%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.44%27.18%27.04%28.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.403.403.6533.33%29.43%29.41%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +27.80%E +4.45%K +5.30%G +1.47% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.55%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%EV -1.11%E -0.304%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +27.80%E +4.45%K +5.30%G +1.47% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.55%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%EV -1.11%E -0.304%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| BetRivers | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -13.97%E -8.52%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Grosvenor | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Unibet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| Casumo | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -14.49%E -8.89%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV +22.69%E +3.78%K +4.54%G +1.03% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -15.02%E -9.27%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.57%EV -17.12%E -10.83%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.57%EV -17.12%E -10.83%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| PMU (FR) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +18.60%E +3.21%K +3.88%G +0.721% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.72%EV -17.64%E -11.24%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| 1xBet | 4.92I 20.33%NM 19.02%EV +0.608%E +0.124%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.72%E -5.01%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.20%EV -6.80%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Pinnacle | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.87%EV -1.23%E -0.255%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.02%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.11%EV -4.09%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Coolbet | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -1.85%E -0.385%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.53%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.62%EV -3.01%E -0.840%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.68%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.68%EV -5.05%E -2.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| BetUS | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| SportsBet | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.20%E -4.69%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -4.91%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.68%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -7.34%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Bovada | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.06%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 00:23 |
| Betr (AU) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -4.53%E -2.49%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| PlayUp | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| 888sport | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:05 |
| William Hill | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:04 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| 888sport (SE) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.58%E -3.10%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 00:14 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.20%E -4.69%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Paddy Power | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.39%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-08 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -12.40%E -7.42%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -18.72%E -6.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| Betsson | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.00%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| NordicBet | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.00%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.63%E -3.72%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 00:19 |
| theScore Bet | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -7.15%E -4.04%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.82%EV -11.35%E -6.71%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.89%EV -10.05%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-09 00:08 |
| Betway | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -4.00%E -2.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.88%E -2.32%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Coral | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Neds | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -11.46%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.25%E -5.35%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.95%E -3.68%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-09 00:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -14.12%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -7.67%E -4.36%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -6.53%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.15I 24.10%NM 20.98%EV -15.14%E -3.65%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.82%EV -11.87%E -7.07%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -13.30%E -4.16%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -18.20%E -4.55%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -10.82%E -6.37%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.59%E -3.21%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-09 00:24 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.22% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-04-09 00:25 |
| Smarkets | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.95% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74% | 1.5% | 2026-04-09 00:20 |