Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fluminense-RJ v Platense

Início: 2026-09-08 22:00 UTC

Final: Fluminense-RJ 2–0 Platense

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fluminense-RJ (Local)

Previsão 59.56%1.68odd justa
EV +4.22%
Vantagem +2.41%
Kelly +5.63%
Crescimento +0.238%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
51.72%59.07%59.58%61.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.491.581.571.7567.11%63.22%63.69%57.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Platense (Visitante)

Previsão 13.57%7.37odd justa
EV +8.57%
Vantagem +1.07%
Kelly +1.22%
Crescimento +0.105%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.75%13.75%13.52%18.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.006.746.788.0020.00%14.83%14.76%12.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.87%3.72odd justa
EV -3.26%
Vantagem -0.905%
Kelly -1.25%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.93%27.18%26.90%30.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.373.403.6033.33%29.71%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Fluminense-RJ (Local): 59.56%; Platense (Visitante): 13.57%; Empate: 26.87%. Para Platense (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.37. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +8.57%.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV +4.22%E +2.41%K +5.63%G +0.238%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -32.14%E -6.43%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -19.38%E -6.46%K -9.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV +4.22%E +2.41%K +5.63%G +0.238%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -32.14%E -6.43%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -19.38%E -6.46%K -9.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV +4.22%E +2.41%K +5.63%G +0.238%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -32.14%E -6.43%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -19.38%E -6.46%K -9.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 21:45
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.45%EV +1.25%E +0.732%K +1.78%G +0.022%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -32.14%E -6.43%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -19.38%E -6.46%K -9.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-08 21:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.81%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.33%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-08 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.81%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.86%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.33%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-08 21:55
GTbets🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.66%EV -2.33%E -1.42%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.24I 13.81%NM 13.29%EV -1.74%E -0.241%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.05%EV -7.83%E -2.28%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 21:50
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 21:55
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 21:55
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.56%EV -7.72%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 21:54
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.56%EV -7.72%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.82%EV -5.31%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +8.57%E +1.07%K +1.22%G +0.105%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-08 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.82%EV -5.31%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +8.57%E +1.07%K +1.22%G +0.105%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-08 21:20
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.52%EV -5.31%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -15.18%E -2.43%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 21:45
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.11%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.07%EV +8.57%E +1.07%K +1.22%G +0.105%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.82%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 21:45
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.37%EV +5.18%E +0.668%K +0.767%G +0.040%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.94%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-08 21:45
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.07%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.59I 13.18%NM 12.50%EV +3.01%E +0.396%K +0.456%G +0.014%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.43%EV -7.02%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.39%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.80%EV -7.72%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 21:45
LeoVegas🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.33%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 21:55
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%EV -5.90%E -3.74%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 21:50
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.32%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +1.78%E +0.238%K +0.275%G +0.005%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 21:50
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.58%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -1.61%E -0.222%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.58%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -13.14%E -2.05%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 21:50
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.23%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-08 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.10%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.25%EV -13.14%E -2.05%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-08 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.91%EV -6.50%E -4.14%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -15.18%E -2.43%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.81%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.00%EV -1.61%E -0.222%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 21:15
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.62%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV +8.57%E +1.07%K +1.22%G +0.105%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 21:45
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.53%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 21:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 21:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.30%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 21:45
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.30%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.30%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 21:45
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.30%EV -7.69%E -4.96%K -13.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.94%EV -8.28%E -5.38%K -15.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -18.57%E -3.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.68%EV -8.28%E -5.38%K -15.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -17.22%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.68%EV -8.28%E -5.38%K -15.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -17.22%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 21:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.68%EV -8.28%E -5.38%K -15.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -17.22%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -14.01%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -8.88%E -5.80%K -16.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -9.47%E -6.23%K -18.22%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.96%EV +5.86%E +0.751%K +0.861%G +0.050%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.81%EV -9.47%E -6.23%K -18.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -18.57%E -3.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-08 21:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.44%EV -10.67%E -7.11%K -21.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +1.78%E +0.238%K +0.275%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-08 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.44%EV -10.67%E -7.11%K -21.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +1.78%E +0.238%K +0.275%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-08 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.97%EV -11.26%E -7.56%K -22.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -11.79%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-08 21:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.37%0.1%2026-09-08 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.05%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-09-08 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.05%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-09-08 21:55
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.80%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%1.5%2026-09-08 21:55