La escuela de los momios

Fluminense-RJ v Independiente Rivadavia

2026-08-11 22:00 UTC — Copa Libertadores

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (6 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fluminense-RJ (Local)

Predicción 61.38%1.63momio equitativo
EV -3.63%
Ventaja -2.31%
Kelly -6.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.44%61.05%61.39%62.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.521.531.5769.93%65.62%65.36%63.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante)

Predicción 16.32%6.13momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -0.349%
Kelly -0.419%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.60%16.74%16.37%20.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.175.006.0022.22%19.34%20.00%16.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.30%4.48momio equitativo
EV +0.360%
Ventaja +0.080%
Kelly +0.103%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.70%22.21%22.24%23.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.164.204.5027.03%24.04%23.81%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (NL)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 14:59
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -4.25%E -2.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -22.49%E -4.73%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +0.360%E +0.080%K +0.103%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 15:00
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.84%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.22%EV -3.56%E -0.603%K -0.725%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.94%EV -2.54%E -0.581%K -0.754%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 01:19
Bovada1.57I 63.69%NM 60.77%EV -3.63%E -2.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -8.62%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.10%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 07:11
Coolbet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -2.09%E -0.349%K -0.419%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -4.10%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-23 00:34
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -26.57%E -5.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.14%EV -4.10%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 15:01
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -26.57%E -5.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.14%EV -4.10%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 15:01
LiveScore Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -26.57%E -5.90%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.14%EV -4.10%E -0.954%K -1.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 15:01
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -7.93%E -5.29%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -2.09%E -0.349%K -0.419%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.22%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-20 11:44
Marathon Bet1.51I 66.23%NM 61.81%EV -7.32%E -4.85%K -14.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -6.17%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -5.22%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 01:15
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -6.70%E -4.41%K -12.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -2.09%E -0.349%K -0.419%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 00:34
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.40%EV -6.70%E -4.41%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -6.99%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.33%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 22:14
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -10.25%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 00:14
Codere (IT)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.90%EV -6.70%E -4.41%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.53%EV -8.62%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 22:14
Suprabets1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -5.47%E -3.56%K -10.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -16.78%E -3.29%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 19:10
Everygame1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -18.41%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -8.56%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 19:13
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.61%E -8.06%K -26.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.25%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-20 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.61%E -8.06%K -26.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.25%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-20 11:45
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -3.72%E -0.631%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.91%E -3.01%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-16 20:20
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -4.86%E -3.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -3.72%E -0.631%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.91%E -3.01%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-16 20:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -21.67%E -4.52%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 01:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -21.67%E -4.52%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 01:04
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -21.67%E -4.52%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 01:05
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -6.09%E -3.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -21.67%E -4.52%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 01:04
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.80%EV -10.39%E -7.11%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.82%EV -20.04%E -4.09%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.39%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 22:14
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.84%EV -6.70%E -4.41%K -12.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -10.25%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.62%EV -14.14%E -3.67%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 03:39
Unibet (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.01%EV -11.61%E -8.06%K -26.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.94%EV -16.78%E -3.29%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -16.37%E -4.36%K -5.95%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-22 22:14
Betclic (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 59.94%EV -11.61%E -8.06%K -26.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.92%EV -16.78%E -3.29%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.14%EV -16.81%E -4.51%K -6.16%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-22 22:13
Winamax (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 59.15%EV -12.23%E -8.55%K -28.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.00%EV -23.31%E -4.96%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.86%EV -17.48%E -4.72%K -6.47%G +0.000%18.2%2026-07-22 22:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 58.87%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.23%16.4%2026-07-02 21:35