Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Flamengo-RJ v Cruzeiro

Início: 2026-08-20 00:30 UTC

Final: Flamengo-RJ 2–1 Cruzeiro

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Flamengo-RJ (Local)

Previsão 57.79%1.73odd justa
EV -4.65%
Vantagem -2.82%
Kelly -7.16%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
56.37%57.84%58.10%60.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.531.601.601.6565.36%62.53%62.50%60.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cruzeiro (Visitante)

Previsão 17.36%5.76odd justa
EV +5.90%
Vantagem +0.967%
Kelly +1.16%
Crescimento +0.068%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.97%17.39%17.14%18.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.705.365.406.1021.28%18.65%18.52%16.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.85%4.02odd justa
EV -0.585%
Vantagem -0.146%
Kelly -0.195%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.35%24.77%24.76%25.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.453.713.704.0028.99%26.93%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Flamengo-RJ (Local): 57.79%; Cruzeiro (Visitante): 17.36%; Empate: 24.85%. Para Cruzeiro (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.76. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.90%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.05%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +5.90%E +0.967%K +1.16%G +0.068%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.98%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-20 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.05%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +5.90%E +0.967%K +1.16%G +0.068%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.98%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-20 00:25
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.18%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.30%EV +2.08%E +0.354%K +0.427%G +0.009%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.52%EV -2.82%E -0.722%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-20 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -0.175%E -0.030%K -0.037%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 00:25
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -0.175%E -0.030%K -0.037%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 00:25
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -0.175%E -0.030%K -0.037%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 00:25
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV -1.04%E -0.183%K -0.222%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-20 00:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -10.43%E -6.73%K -18.97%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -1.04%E -0.183%K -0.222%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -0.585%E -0.146%K -0.195%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-20 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.71%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 16.97%EV -2.61%E -0.464%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.32%EV -6.55%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 22:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.71%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 16.97%EV -2.61%E -0.464%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.32%EV -6.55%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 22:40
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.65%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.99%EV -2.78%E -0.496%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-19 22:40
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -2.78%E -0.496%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -1.83%E -0.463%K -0.620%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-20 00:20
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.80%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -2.78%E -0.496%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-20 00:20
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.33%EV -2.78%E -0.496%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 00:25
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 23:30
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 00:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.95%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -7.54%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 00:10
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-20 00:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 00:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.88%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.40%EV -10.43%E -6.73%K -18.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -4.52%E -0.821%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-20 00:25
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -6.25%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -4.31%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 00:14
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -6.25%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-20 00:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -6.25%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-20 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -11.01%E -7.15%K -20.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -7.99%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -14.25%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-20 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -11.01%E -7.15%K -20.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -7.99%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -14.25%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-20 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -11.01%E -7.15%K -20.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -7.99%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -14.25%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-20 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.71%EV -5.23%E -3.19%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -8.86%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 00:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -8.86%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 23:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -8.86%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.94%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -8.86%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-20 00:15
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -4.65%E -2.82%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.22%EV -9.72%E -1.87%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.36%EV -3.32%E -0.853%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-20 00:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.73%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -9.72%E -1.87%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.31%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 00:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.00%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -11.46%E -2.25%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.12%EV -9.78%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 00:14
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-19 23:56
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.54%E -4.71%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 00:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -6.39%E -3.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-20 00:10
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -11.59%E -7.57%K -21.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -13.20%E -2.64%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-20 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -8.70%E -5.51%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -16.67%E -3.47%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -4.31%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-19 23:56
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.21%EV -9.85%E -6.32%K -17.60%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -18.40%E -3.92%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-19 23:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.72%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.72%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-08-20 00:25
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.24%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90%1.7%2026-08-20 00:26