La escuela de los momios

Estudiantes La Plata v Cusco FC

Inicio: 2026-04-14 22:00 UTC

Final: Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Cusco FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Estudiantes La Plata (Local)

Predicción 80.53%1.24momio equitativo
EV -4.17%
Ventaja -3.50%
Kelly -21.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
77.82%80.60%80.43%82.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.111.151.151.1990.09%86.73%86.96%84.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Cusco FC (Visitante)

Predicción 5.40%18.54momio equitativo
EV +18.69%
Ventaja +0.850%
Kelly +0.890%
Crecimiento +0.166%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 22.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.24%5.45%5.41%7.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
12.5017.4517.5022.008.00%5.73%5.71%4.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.07%7.11momio equitativo
EV +12.57%
Ventaja +1.57%
Kelly +1.80%
Crecimiento +0.226%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.23%13.95%14.17%16.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.776.758.0018.18%14.76%14.81%12.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.18I 84.75%NM 82.88%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%EV +7.90%E +0.395%K +0.416%G +0.033%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.23%EV +12.57%E +1.57%K +1.80%G +0.226%2.2%2026-04-14 21:30
ATG (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 82.88%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%EV +7.90%E +0.395%K +0.416%G +0.033%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.23%EV +12.57%E +1.57%K +1.80%G +0.226%2.2%2026-04-14 21:30
BetRivers1.15I 86.96%NM 82.38%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.99%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%5.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%6.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Casumo1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%6.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet (NL)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%6.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%6.3%2026-04-14 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.64%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +5.54%E +0.738%K +0.852%G +0.047%7.1%2026-04-14 21:30
Pinnacle1.16I 86.21%NM 82.44%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%20.41I 4.90%NM 4.69%EV +10.11%E +0.496%K +0.521%G +0.053%7.43I 13.46%NM 12.87%EV +4.55%E +0.613%K +0.708%G +0.032%4.6%2026-04-14 21:45
1xBet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.11%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%14.80I 6.76%NM 6.30%EV -20.15%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.41I 13.50%NM 12.59%EV +4.27%E +0.576%K +0.666%G +0.028%7.2%2026-04-14 21:50
Marathon Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.61%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.21%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +18.69%E +0.850%K +0.890%G +0.166%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.15%EV -0.092%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 21:29
Bovada1.17I 85.47%NM 81.39%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.01%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 21:28
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.49%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -13.68%E -0.855%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 21:50
Betway1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -19.07%E -1.27%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Suprabets1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 21:27
Everygame1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 10:03
SportsBet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.11%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.21%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.64%EV +7.90%E +0.395%K +0.416%G +0.033%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 21:30
PMU (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.95%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -2.89%E -0.160%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 21:29
LiveScore Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 81.95%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -2.89%E -0.160%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 21:30
Virgin Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 81.95%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -2.89%E -0.160%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -1.50%E -0.214%K -0.250%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-14 21:29
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 80.24%EV -4.17%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.15%EV -5.02%E -0.743%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-14 13:59
LowVig.ag1.19I 84.03%NM 80.24%EV -4.17%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.15%EV -5.02%E -0.743%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-14 10:00
BetOnline.ag1.19I 84.03%NM 80.24%EV -4.17%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.15%EV -5.02%E -0.743%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-14 10:04
theScore Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.78%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -19.07%E -1.27%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.95%EV -5.02%E -0.743%K -0.873%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 21:45
Winamax (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -24.47%E -1.75%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -5.02%E -0.743%K -0.873%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 21:30
Betr (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 21:45
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 80.81%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 21:30
William Hill1.15I 86.96%NM 80.81%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 21:29
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.81%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.81%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +2.51%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 80.90%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -8.54%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Betsson1.16I 86.21%NM 80.69%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV +7.90%E +0.395%K +0.416%G +0.033%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -9.94%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-14 21:45
NordicBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.69%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV +7.90%E +0.395%K +0.416%G +0.033%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -9.94%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-14 21:45
Betclic (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.31%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.39%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.31%EV -9.94%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 21:43
PlayUp1.16I 86.21%NM 80.59%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +13.30%E +0.633%K +0.665%G +0.088%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV -12.05%E -1.93%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 21:45
PointsBet (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 79.62%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -12.05%E -1.93%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:00
Codere (IT)1.15I 86.96%NM 79.80%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -12.76%E -2.06%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 21:45
betfred_uk1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -19.07%E -1.27%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 21:44
Neds1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -29.86%E -2.30%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 12:59
Coral1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -29.86%E -2.30%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -29.86%E -2.30%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -29.86%E -2.30%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 13:00
Winamax (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 78.35%EV -9.80%E -8.75%K -81.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.02%EV -32.56%E -2.60%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -15.57%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 78.62%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.21%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23%EV -8.28%E -0.487%K -0.518%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.15%EV -22.61%E -4.11%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-14 21:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.72%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.83%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.45%0.4%2026-04-14 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.72%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.83%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.45%0.4%2026-04-14 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 83.72%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.83%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.45%0.4%2026-04-14 21:50
Smarkets1.18I 84.75%NM 83.44%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.94%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.62%1.6%2026-04-14 21:50