Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cusco FC v Flamengo-RJ

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cusco FC (Local)

Prediction 20.59%4.86fair odd
EV +13.27%
Edge +2.41%
Kelly +2.95%
Growth +0.391%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.12%20.38%20.81%22.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.734.605.5025.32%21.14%21.74%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo-RJ (Visit)

Prediction 51.32%1.95fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.40%51.63%51.16%56.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.761.801.8762.11%56.83%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.312%
Kelly +0.432%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.98%27.99%28.03%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.343.6034.72%29.97%29.94%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cusco FC (Local): 20.59%; Flamengo-RJ (Visit): 51.32%; Draw: 28.09%. For Cusco FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.86. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
Casumo🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-08 23:59
BetRivers🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +13.27%E +2.41%K +2.95%G +0.391%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.72%EV -14.82%E -8.93%K -22.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.2%2026-04-09 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +11.21%E +2.08%K +2.55%G +0.286%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -15.33%E -9.29%K -23.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV +1.12%E +0.312%K +0.432%G +0.005%6.9%2026-04-09 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV +8.12%E +1.55%K +1.91%G +0.155%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -17.38%E -10.80%K -28.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -1.69%E -0.481%K -0.674%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-09 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV +8.12%E +1.55%K +1.91%G +0.155%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -17.38%E -10.80%K -28.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -1.69%E -0.481%K -0.674%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-09 00:20
PMU (FR)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV +8.12%E +1.55%K +1.91%G +0.155%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -17.38%E -10.80%K -28.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -1.69%E -0.481%K -0.674%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-09 00:20
Pinnacle🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV +1.94%E +0.393%K +0.492%G +0.010%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.41%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 00:10
1xBet🎯4.93I 20.28%NM 18.97%EV +1.53%E +0.311%K +0.390%G +0.006%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.25%EV -8.15%E -4.55%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 00:19
LowVig.ag🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.64%EV -0.115%E -0.024%K -0.030%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -5.07%E -2.74%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-08 23:14
BetOnline.ag🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.64%EV -0.115%E -0.024%K -0.030%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -5.07%E -2.74%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-08 23:14
BetUS🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -1.14%E -0.239%K -0.301%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.88%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 00:04
Everygame🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -2.17%E -0.458%K -0.580%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 23:29
Marathon Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -2.17%E -0.458%K -0.580%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.42%EV -8.66%E -4.86%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -6.18%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 23:35
Coolbet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV -3.20%E -0.682%K -0.866%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -3.09%E -0.896%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 21:49
GTbets🎯4.69I 21.32%NM 20.15%EV -3.41%E -0.727%K -0.924%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.21%EV -7.12%E -3.93%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.63%EV -3.93%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 04:10
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.11%EV -4.04%E -2.16%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 00:23
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 00:24
Betr (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.61%E -3.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-08 17:15
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 00:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 17:15
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 00:19
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 00:20
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 00:20
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-09 00:24
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -8.35%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -6.61%E -3.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 23:30
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -8.35%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -6.61%E -3.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 23:30
PlayUp🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -9.38%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 00:04
theScore Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -6.09%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 22:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 19.62%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 50.88%EV -14.30%E -8.56%K -21.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.50%EV -19.10%E -6.63%K -10.16%G +0.000%17.7%2026-04-09 00:25
Codere (IT)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -11.44%E -2.66%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.42%EV -6.61%E -3.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -13.50%E -3.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.79%EV -9.69%E -5.50%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-09 00:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.50%E -3.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-08 21:50
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.50%E -3.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-08 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.50%E -3.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-08 21:50
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.50%E -3.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-08 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -15.56%E -3.80%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.60%EV -7.63%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -5.90%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 22:09
Winamax (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.20%EV -18.65%E -4.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.40%EV -10.71%E -6.16%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-08 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-04-09 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-04-09 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-04-09 00:20
Smarkets5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.45%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.90%1.8%2026-04-09 00:20