Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carabobo FC v Sporting Cristal

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carabobo FC (Local)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.778%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.80%35.82%35.84%36.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.622.7341.67%38.73%38.17%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Cristal (Visit)

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV +0.210%
Edge +0.067%
Kelly +0.099%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.15%32.09%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.853.1237.04%34.92%35.09%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.03%3.12fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.70%32.03%32.07%33.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.902.913.0538.02%34.47%34.36%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carabobo FC (Local): 35.85%; Sporting Cristal (Visit): 32.12%; Draw: 32.03%. For Sporting Cristal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.210%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.55%EV -2.12%E -0.778%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.10%EV +0.210%E +0.067%K +0.099%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.35%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.93%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.93%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 21:49
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 21:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.61%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -6.16%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 21:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.61%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -6.16%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 21:10
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.48%E -0.912%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.24%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.68%EV -6.48%E -2.22%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 21:45
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.20%E -1.18%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 21:20
GTbets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.12%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.12%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 21:35
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.72%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 21:30
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 21:05
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 21:05
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
Suprabets🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.33%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.55%EV -8.08%E -2.81%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 21:34
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.76%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.76%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.21%EV -7.82%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 21:35
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 21:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 21:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 21:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.10%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.40%EV -8.40%E -2.94%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 21:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-04 21:34
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-04 21:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-04 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.63%EV -11.03%E -3.98%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.92%E -4.33%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-04 21:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 21:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 21:00
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 21:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 21:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -11.92%E -4.33%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.21%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -15.76%E -5.99%K -9.67%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-04 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.40%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57%2.4%2026-03-04 21:55