La escuela de los momios

Carabobo FC v Sporting Cristal

Inicio: 2026-03-04 22:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Carabobo FC (Local)

Predicción 35.85%2.79momio equitativo
EV -2.12%
Ventaja -0.778%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.80%35.82%35.84%36.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.582.622.7341.67%38.73%38.17%36.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sporting Cristal (Visitante)

Predicción 32.12%3.11momio equitativo
EV +0.210%
Ventaja +0.067%
Kelly +0.099%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.10%32.15%32.09%33.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.862.853.1237.04%34.92%35.09%32.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 32.03%3.12momio equitativo
EV -2.31%
Ventaja -0.758%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.70%32.03%32.07%33.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.902.913.0538.02%34.47%34.36%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.73I 36.63%NM 35.55%EV -2.12%E -0.778%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.10%EV +0.210%E +0.067%K +0.099%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.35%EV -6.80%E -2.34%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.93%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.93%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 21:49
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 21:39
BetOnline.ag2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.61%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -6.16%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 21:10
LowVig.ag2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.61%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -6.16%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 21:10
Pinnacle2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.48%E -0.912%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.24%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.68%EV -6.48%E -2.22%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 21:45
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.20%E -1.18%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 21:20
GTbets2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.12%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.12%EV -5.83%E -1.98%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:45
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 21:35
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.72%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 21:30
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 21:00
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 21:05
theScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 21:05
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 21:50
Suprabets2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.33%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.55%EV -8.08%E -2.81%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 21:34
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.76%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 18:20
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.76%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 18:20
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.21%EV -7.82%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 21:35
Casumo2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Unibet (NL)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
BetRivers2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Unibet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Svenska Spel2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:00
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 21:05
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.31%E -0.758%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 21:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 21:05
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 21:35
Marathon Bet2.64I 37.88%NM 35.10%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.40%EV -8.40%E -2.94%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 21:50
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 21:05
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-04 21:34
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-04 21:35
Codere (IT)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-04 21:09
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.63%EV -11.03%E -3.98%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.92%E -4.33%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-04 21:35
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 21:00
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 21:00
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 21:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 21:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -11.92%E -4.33%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 21:05
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.21%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-04 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -15.76%E -5.99%K -9.67%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-04 21:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%1.0%2026-03-04 21:50
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.40%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57%2.4%2026-03-04 21:55