Language:English
Toluca v Monterrey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 46.16%2.17fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.02%46.11%46.19%47.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.0851.28%49.35%48.78%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Monterrey (Visit)
Prediction 27.85%3.59fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.100%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.13%27.84%27.83%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.393.423.7832.26%29.49%29.20%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV +0.054%
Edge +0.014%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.72%26.05%25.98%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.403.8530.30%28.85%29.41%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 46.16%; Monterrey (Visit): 27.85%; Draw: 25.99%. For Monterrey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.73%EV -8.14%E -4.09%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.13%EV +5.28%E +1.40%K +1.90%G +0.100% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.99%E -1.92%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -5.14%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -1.51%E -0.397%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -1.51%E -0.397%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -4.45%E -2.15%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -2.52%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.72%EV -4.91%E -2.38%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -3.91%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -1.51%E -0.397%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -3.91%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-07 00:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.84%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-07 00:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-07 00:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -6.76%E -3.35%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.76%E -3.35%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.76%E -3.35%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.30%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.43%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -8.09%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV +0.054%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.37%E -2.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.09%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -8.09%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.17%EV -8.60%E -4.35%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.09%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-07 00:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.48%E -2.92%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-07 00:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -8.60%E -4.35%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.48%E -2.92%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-07 01:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -7.68%E -3.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.48%E -2.92%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.48%E -2.92%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-07 00:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.48%E -2.92%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-07 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.02%EV -8.60%E -4.35%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.76%EV -13.66%E -4.41%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-07 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -13.66%E -4.41%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-07 00:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -13.66%E -4.41%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-07 00:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -13.66%E -4.41%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-07 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.99%E -5.12%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -13.66%E -4.41%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-07 00:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.98% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62% | 1.4% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.98% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62% | 1.4% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.98% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62% | 1.4% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.82% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.31% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87% | 1.7% | 2026-09-07 01:10 |