The School of Odds
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Toluca v FC Dallas

2026-08-13 02:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 63.08%1.59fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.68%63.13%63.01%65.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.431.5473.53%69.34%69.93%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dallas (Visit)

Prediction 16.03%6.24fair odd
EV +4.17%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.00%16.00%16.22%19.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.885.986.056.5020.49%16.73%16.53%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV +6.56%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.73%20.87%20.78%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.504.605.1025.00%22.22%21.74%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toluca (Local): 63.08%; FC Dallas (Visit): 16.03%; Draw: 20.89%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.10, producing a positive expected value of +6.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.52%EV -12.95%E -9.38%K -34.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.75%EV -13.46%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.73%EV +6.56%E +1.29%K +1.60%G +0.105%10.6%2026-08-11 13:20
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.35%EV -2.86%E -1.86%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.36%EV -21.80%E -4.47%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +2.38%E +0.487%K +0.611%G +0.015%5.8%2026-08-11 12:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.97%EV -14.21%E -10.45%K -39.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -16.67%E -3.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.03%EV +2.38%E +0.487%K +0.611%G +0.015%13.2%2026-08-11 13:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV +4.17%E +0.641%K +0.757%G +0.032%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -0.749%E -0.158%K -0.200%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-11 12:19
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:20
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +2.56%E +0.400%K +0.475%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -1.79%E -0.382%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:19
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.38%E -3.59%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.85%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.88%E -0.844%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 13:15
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -10.43%E -7.34%K -24.83%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV +0.159%E +0.025%K +0.030%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -3.88%E -0.844%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-11 12:19
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -6.64%E -4.49%K -13.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -7.85%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.97%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 13:19
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -9.17%E -6.36%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.85%E -0.641%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -5.97%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-11 13:14
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.47%EV -4.12%E -2.71%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -13.46%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -8.06%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:10
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -3.85%E -0.641%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -8.06%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-11 13:15
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.35%EV -6.01%E -4.03%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -8.65%E -1.52%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.36%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 13:19
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.01%EV -7.27%E -4.95%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV -5.45%E -0.924%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 13:20
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -9.80%E -6.85%K -22.78%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.00%EV -2.24%E -0.368%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.03%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-11 13:19
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -11.69%E -8.35%K -29.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV +4.17%E +0.641%K +0.757%G +0.032%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.53%E -2.20%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-11 13:19
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.53%E -5.89%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -3.85%E -0.641%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -10.15%E -2.36%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 13:14
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -9.17%E -6.36%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -3.85%E -0.641%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -12.24%E -2.91%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-11 13:14
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -11.69%E -8.35%K -29.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -12.24%E -2.91%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-11 13:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -11.69%E -8.35%K -29.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -12.24%E -2.91%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-11 13:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -11.69%E -8.35%K -29.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -12.24%E -2.91%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-11 13:19
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.87%EV -6.64%E -4.49%K -13.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -15.87%E -3.02%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -14.33%E -3.50%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-11 13:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -6.64%E -4.49%K -13.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +4.17%E +0.641%K +0.757%G +0.032%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 13:19
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -5.38%E -3.59%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 13:08
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -5.38%E -3.59%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.86%E -2.16%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 13:08
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.17%E -6.36%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -19.87%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-11 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.68%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.82%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%2.6%2026-08-11 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.68%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.82%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.49%2.6%2026-08-11 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.14%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%3.4%2026-08-11 13:20
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%6.8%2026-08-11 13:20
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.07%1xBet 1.54 (65.0%) / Betway 6.50 (15.4%) / Winamax (DE) 5.10 (19.6%)Show all 3 combinations
Toluca (Local)FC Dallas (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 1.54 (65.0%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 6.50 (15.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 5.10 (19.6%)+0.073%
1xBet🎯 1.54 (65.0%)Dabble (AU)🎯 6.50 (15.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 5.10 (19.6%)+0.073%
1xBet🎯 1.54 (65.0%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 5.10 (19.6%)+0.073%

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