Language:English
Toluca v FC Dallas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 67.68%1.48fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -7.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.11%67.47%67.65%69.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.351.4375.76%73.33%74.07%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Dallas (Visit)
Prediction 13.97%7.16fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +0.639%
Kelly +0.737%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.63%14.07%14.07%15.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.697.007.5017.39%14.95%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.34%5.45fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.21%18.46%18.27%20.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.065.205.3022.73%19.78%19.23%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 67.68%; FC Dallas (Visit): 13.97%; Draw: 18.34%. For FC Dallas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +4.79%E +0.639%K +0.737%G +0.035% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -11.95%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-13 01:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV +1.30%E +0.179%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 01:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-13 01:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 01:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -17.45%E -3.88%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -9.30%E -6.94%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -10.66%E -8.07%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-13 01:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-13 01:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-13 01:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.79I 14.73%NM 14.07%EV -5.13%E -0.756%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-13 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.03%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.61%EV -5.69%E -0.843%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-13 01:41 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.27%E -5.31%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -6.39%E -0.953%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.27%E -5.31%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -6.39%E -0.953%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 01:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.88%EV -3.89%E -2.74%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.69I 14.95%NM 14.20%EV -6.53%E -0.976%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 18.92%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.69%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.53I 15.31%NM 14.61%EV -8.76%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 01:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.69%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.53I 15.31%NM 14.61%EV -8.76%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 01:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-13 01:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -10.12%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.26%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -10.12%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-13 01:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.87%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-13 01:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.87%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -3.89%E -2.74%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 01:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.58%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-13 01:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-13 01:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -17.57%E -2.98%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.64%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.27%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -15.62%E -3.40%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-13 01:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75% | 0.6% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75% | 0.6% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.03% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69% | 0.9% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.42% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.97% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.60% | 1.4% | 2026-08-13 01:55 |