Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toluca v FC Dallas

2026-08-13 02:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toluca (Local)

Predicción 66.93%1.49momio equitativo
EV -4.29%
Ventaja -3.00%
Kelly -9.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.18%66.76%66.89%68.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.391.401.4375.76%72.08%71.43%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Dallas (Visitante)

Predicción 13.25%7.55momio equitativo
EV -0.599%
Ventaja -0.080%
Kelly -0.092%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.29%13.26%13.23%14.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.256.866.757.5016.00%14.57%14.81%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.82%5.05momio equitativo
EV -0.908%
Ventaja -0.182%
Kelly -0.227%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.48%19.98%19.88%22.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.614.705.0025.00%21.68%21.28%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Toluca (Local): 66.93%; FC Dallas (Visitante): 13.25%; Empate: 19.82%. Para FC Dallas (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 7.55. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 7.50, con un valor esperado de -0.599%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.98%EV -4.29%E -3.00%K -9.98%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -0.599%E -0.080%K -0.092%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.44%EV -12.80%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 14:01
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -0.908%E -0.182%K -0.227%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-11 14:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-11 13:34
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.83%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 14:07
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -13.85%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -10.82%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 14:09
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 13:34
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.04%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.04%EV -5.37%E -0.752%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -11.81%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-11 14:04
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 13:34
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 12.46%EV -1.26%E -0.169%K -0.196%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.24%EV -13.39%E -3.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-11 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -10.82%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-11 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -4.87%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:09
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.21%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06%EV -5.90%E -0.831%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -6.85%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-11 14:09
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.54%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -13.85%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 14:10
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.88%EV -8.31%E -6.06%K -22.46%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.74%EV -3.25%E -0.445%K -0.516%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -4.87%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 14:09
Fliff🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.13%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.23%EV -8.55%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.63%EV -7.84%E -1.69%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-11 14:09
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-11 14:09
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-11 14:09
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -17.17%E -2.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -10.82%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-11 14:08
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -20.73%E -5.18%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-11 14:09
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -20.73%E -5.18%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-11 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -20.73%E -5.18%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-11 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -20.73%E -5.18%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-11 14:09
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -9.65%E -7.15%K -27.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -0.599%E -0.080%K -0.092%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 14:09
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.38%EV -9.65%E -7.15%K -27.56%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.48%EV -10.54%E -1.56%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-11 13:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.58%EV -10.32%E -7.70%K -30.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -13.85%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -2.89%E -0.590%K -0.741%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 14:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.41%EV -10.32%E -7.70%K -30.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.24%EV -17.17%E -2.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-11 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -5.86%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-11 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.59%EV -11.65%E -8.83%K -36.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -7.23%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -2.89%E -0.590%K -0.741%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-11 13:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-08-11 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-08-11 14:10
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 69.35%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.54%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.11%2.3%2026-08-11 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.63%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.87%3.6%2026-08-11 14:10

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