Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Toluca v FC Dallas

Início: 2026-08-13 02:00 UTC

Final: Toluca 3–1 FC Dallas

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Toluca (Local)

Previsão 67.68%1.48odd justa
EV -3.21%
Vantagem -2.25%
Kelly -7.47%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.11%67.47%67.65%69.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.321.361.351.4375.76%73.33%74.07%69.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Dallas (Visitante)

Previsão 13.97%7.16odd justa
EV +4.79%
Vantagem +0.639%
Kelly +0.737%
Crescimento +0.035%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.63%14.07%14.07%15.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.756.697.007.5017.39%14.95%14.29%13.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.34%5.45odd justa
EV -2.78%
Vantagem -0.524%
Kelly -0.646%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.21%18.46%18.27%20.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.405.065.205.3022.73%19.78%19.23%18.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Toluca (Local): 67.68%; FC Dallas (Visitante): 13.97%; Empate: 18.34%. Para FC Dallas (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.16. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.79%.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Caesars🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +4.79%E +0.639%K +0.737%G +0.035%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -11.95%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 01:25
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV +1.30%E +0.179%K +0.207%G +0.003%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 01:39
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 01:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 16:49
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
Bally Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:50
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -17.45%E -3.88%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-13 01:50
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -9.30%E -6.94%K -27.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-13 01:50
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -10.66%E -8.07%K -33.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-13 01:45
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-13 01:53
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-13 01:53
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.79I 14.73%NM 14.07%EV -5.13%E -0.756%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 01:45
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.03%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.61%EV -5.69%E -0.843%K -0.989%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-13 01:41
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.27%E -5.31%K -19.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -6.39%E -0.953%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-13 01:55
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.27%E -5.31%K -19.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -6.39%E -0.953%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -4.61%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-13 01:54
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.88%EV -3.89%E -2.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.69I 14.95%NM 14.20%EV -6.53%E -0.976%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.92%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 01:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.69%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.53I 15.31%NM 14.61%EV -8.76%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-13 01:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.69%EV -3.21%E -2.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.53I 15.31%NM 14.61%EV -8.76%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-13 01:35
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -3.70%E -0.704%K -0.870%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 01:45
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -6.60%E -4.78%K -17.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -10.12%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-13 01:50
Fliff🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.26%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -10.12%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-13 01:54
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.87%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-13 01:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -9.18%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.87%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-13 01:50
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -3.89%E -2.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-13 01:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.58%EV -8.63%E -6.39%K -24.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -2.78%E -0.524%K -0.646%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-13 01:54
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-13 01:50
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-13 01:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-13 01:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.17%E -2.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -19.29%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-13 01:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -9.98%E -7.50%K -30.24%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -17.57%E -2.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -6.45%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-13 01:55
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.64%EV -5.24%E -3.74%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-13 01:55
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.27%EV -7.95%E -5.84%K -22.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -19.66%E -3.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -15.62%E -3.40%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 01:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%0.6%2026-08-13 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.51%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%0.6%2026-08-13 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%0.9%2026-08-13 01:55
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.42%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.97%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.60%1.4%2026-08-13 01:55