Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruz Azul v Philadelphia Union

2026-08-07 00:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.83%37.24%37.34%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.472.482.5541.67%40.55%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 37.60%2.66fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.96%37.54%37.51%38.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.452.452.5541.67%40.79%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.865%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%25.21%25.14%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.8529.41%27.80%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cruz Azul (Local): 37.29%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 37.60%; Draw: 25.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -3.33%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
theScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -4.12%E -1.62%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.58%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.28%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.03%EV -6.00%E -2.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -3.33%E -0.865%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 16:35
1xBet2.51I 39.84%NM 36.91%EV -6.40%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.50%EV -7.13%E -2.89%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.59%EV -9.10%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 19:10
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 16:34
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 16:35
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -7.52%E -3.03%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -6.75%E -2.72%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -7.52%E -3.03%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -6.75%E -2.72%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Dabble (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.88%E -3.22%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 17:35
ReBet2.44I 40.98%NM 37.34%EV -9.01%E -3.69%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.34%EV -8.26%E -3.38%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 16:35
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.63%E -4.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.63%E -4.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 17:29
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.63%E -4.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 17:35
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.76%E -4.07%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.63%E -4.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.