Language:English
Cruz Azul v Philadelphia Union
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cruz Azul (Local)
Prediction 42.47%2.35fair odd
EV +3.19%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +2.23%
Growth +0.071%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.58%42.29%42.51%45.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.232.202.4350.00%44.85%45.45%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Philadelphia Union (Visit)
Prediction 31.69%3.16fair odd
EV +0.783%
Edge +0.246%
Kelly +0.359%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.90%31.88%31.54%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.853.1837.04%34.91%35.09%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.84%3.87fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.269%
Kelly -0.365%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.79%25.83%25.95%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.603.8330.30%27.90%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruz Azul (Local): 42.47%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 31.69%; Draw: 25.84%. For Cruz Azul (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV +3.19%E +1.31%K +2.23%G +0.071% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -9.68%E -3.39%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV +3.19%E +1.31%K +2.23%G +0.071% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -9.68%E -3.39%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV +1.07%E +0.450%K +0.776%G +0.008% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -0.203%E -0.086%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -1.05%E -0.451%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -2.33%E -1.01%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -11.26%E -4.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -1.81%E -0.476%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 23:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.45%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.32%EV -5.72%E -2.58%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.43%EV -3.02%E -0.987%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.24%EV -1.55%E -0.406%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-06 23:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.64%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -1.81%E -0.476%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.64%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -1.81%E -0.476%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 23:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 23:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -9.68%E -3.39%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-06 23:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -7.42%E -3.40%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.30%EV -5.56%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-06 23:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -7.42%E -3.40%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.30%EV -5.56%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-06 23:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -1.81%E -0.476%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-06 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.09%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.09%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-07 00:03 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-07 00:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -8.70%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -12.84%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-06 23:41 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -9.97%E -4.70%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-06 23:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.90%EV +0.783%E +0.246%K +0.359%G +0.003% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.82%EV -1.03%E -0.269%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 23:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.72%E -3.03%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-06 23:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -8.09%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.85%E -3.15%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -8.72%E -3.03%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.73%E -4.46%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-06 23:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -8.72%E -3.03%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.73%E -4.46%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-06 23:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.82%E -5.15%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -8.72%E -3.03%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.73%E -4.46%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-06 23:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -12.94%E -6.31%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -11.26%E -4.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -13.44%E -4.01%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.94%EV -15.07%E -7.53%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.81%EV -14.43%E -5.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.26%EV -12.14%E -3.57%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.69% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58% | 1.7% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.76% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 00:02 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.49% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19% | 3.1% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.49% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19% | 3.1% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.