La escuela de los momios

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Inicio: 2026-05-15 11:35 UTC

Final: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 1–2 Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Predicción 25.90%3.86momio equitativo
EV -0.293%
Ventaja -0.076%
Kelly -0.103%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.57%25.73%26.00%27.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.613.603.8530.30%27.69%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visitante)

Predicción 46.81%2.14momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.21%46.99%46.80%49.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.941.952.0857.80%51.43%51.28%48.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.29%3.66momio equitativo
EV -1.76%
Ventaja -0.490%
Kelly -0.679%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.17%27.29%27.19%28.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.363.383.6032.26%29.77%29.59%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.05%EV -11.52%E -6.10%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-15 11:25
Unibet (NL)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:24
Unibet (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:20
Grosvenor3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:24
TABtouch3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:25
betPARX3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:20
BetRivers3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.99%EV -11.99%E -6.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-15 11:20
LeoVegas3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -0.293%E -0.076%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.12%EV -12.46%E -6.66%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-15 11:25
SportsBet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -1.59%E -0.418%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-15 11:25
FanDuel3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -1.59%E -0.418%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-15 11:23
LeoVegas (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -1.59%E -0.418%K -0.567%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-15 11:24
Bet Victor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -2.88%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -12.46%E -6.66%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-15 11:28
LiveScore Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -2.88%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -14.33%E -7.83%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-15 11:24
Virgin Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -2.88%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -14.33%E -7.83%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-15 11:20
Pinnacle3.72I 26.88%NM 25.84%EV -3.66%E -0.984%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.22%EV -2.63%E -1.26%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.94%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-15 11:29
Marathon Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.29%EV -8.24%E -4.21%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-15 11:30
Tipico (DE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-15 11:25
DraftKings3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.22%EV -4.03%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-15 11:15
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.31%E -3.69%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -1.76%E -0.490%K -0.679%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 11:14
Bovada3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -4.50%E -2.21%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-15 11:28
BetUS3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -4.50%E -2.21%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-15 11:29
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 11:15
PointsBet (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 11:14
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-15 11:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.05%EV -19.01%E -10.99%K -26.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.37%EV -15.41%E -4.97%K -7.34%G +0.000%17.8%2026-05-15 11:15
1xBet3.56I 28.09%NM 26.21%EV -7.80%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.19%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.77%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-15 11:29
GTbets3.56I 28.09%NM 25.95%EV -7.80%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.87%EV -9.65%E -5.00%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.17%EV -3.67%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-15 11:15
LowVig.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-15 11:29
BetOnline.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.59%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-15 11:29
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -7.31%E -3.69%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-15 11:19
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -7.31%E -3.69%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-15 11:15
Winamax (DE)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.94%EV -11.05%E -5.82%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-15 11:14
Betway3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.03%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.49%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-15 11:30
Codere (IT)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -8.24%E -4.21%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-15 11:15
Bet Right3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.25%EV -9.18%E -4.73%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-15 11:15
betfred_uk3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.22%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-15 11:15
888sport3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-15 11:14
William Hill3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-15 11:19
888sport (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-15 11:14
Mr Green (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.37%E -3.19%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-15 11:15
Everygame3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.36%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 11:14
Winamax (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -11.95%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.38%EV -12.92%E -6.95%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -9.95%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-15 11:15
Unibet (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -11.95%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.73%EV -14.80%E -8.13%K -18.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-15 11:14
PlayUp3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -14.54%E -4.41%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -4.03%E -1.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-15 11:29
Neds3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -14.54%E -4.41%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-15 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -14.54%E -4.41%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -8.71%E -4.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-15 11:14
BoyleSports3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -14.54%E -4.41%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.96%EV -10.58%E -5.54%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.68%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-15 11:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-05-15 11:29
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.56%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.71%1.1%2026-05-15 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-05-15 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%1.6%2026-05-15 11:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%1.6%2026-05-15 11:29