La escuela de los momios

Shanghai SIPG FC v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Inicio: 2026-04-21 12:00 UTC

Final: Shanghai SIPG FC 1–2 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Shanghai SIPG FC (Local)

Predicción 38.54%2.59momio equitativo
EV +0.193%
Ventaja +0.074%
Kelly +0.121%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.51%38.63%38.53%41.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.372.402.6046.51%42.26%41.75%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visitante)

Predicción 31.45%3.18momio equitativo
EV -0.922%
Ventaja -0.293%
Kelly -0.429%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.61%31.32%31.54%32.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.952.953.1537.04%33.93%33.90%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.01%3.33momio equitativo
EV +0.537%
Ventaja +0.160%
Kelly +0.228%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.48%30.05%29.94%31.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.113.103.3534.48%32.15%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV +0.537%E +0.160%K +0.228%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-21 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.89%EV -15.99%E -7.34%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -0.964%E -0.292%K -0.419%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 11:40
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -2.46%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 11:55
Virgin Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.83%EV -17.15%E -7.98%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -2.46%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 11:40
LiveScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.83%EV -17.15%E -7.98%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -2.46%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 11:40
GTbets2.43I 41.15%NM 39.07%EV -6.36%E -2.62%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.44%EV -5.01%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.49%EV -3.36%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 11:35
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -3.97%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 11:40
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 11:40
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 11:40
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-21 11:55
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 11:40
Pinnacle2.51I 39.84%NM 38.40%EV -3.28%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.60%EV -0.922%E -0.293%K -0.429%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.99%EV -6.67%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-21 11:55
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -2.49%E -0.805%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 11:54
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 11:55
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -6.74%E -2.79%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -8.16%E -2.79%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 11:40
Codere (IT)2.39I 41.84%NM 38.53%EV -7.90%E -3.31%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 11:55
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -13.29%E -5.91%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -2.49%E -0.805%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:53
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.97%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:55
Marathon Bet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.30%EV -6.74%E -2.79%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.00%EV -5.95%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.69%EV -9.37%E -3.10%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 11:55
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV +0.193%E +0.074%K +0.121%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -6.27%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 11:55
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV +0.193%E +0.074%K +0.121%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -6.27%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 11:55
BetUS2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV +0.193%E +0.074%K +0.121%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -6.27%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 11:55
Bovada2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -4.43%E -1.79%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -4.07%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 11:55
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 11:55
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-21 11:55
Neds2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-21 11:55
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-21 11:30
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -13.29%E -5.91%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -15.08%E -5.58%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -9.97%E -3.32%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-21 11:55
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -11.47%E -3.89%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 11:54
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:55
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:55
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:55
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:55
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 11:55
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 11:40
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.97%E -4.47%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-21 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-04-21 11:55
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.62%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.69%1.1%2026-04-21 11:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-04-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-04-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-04-21 11:55