Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC v Shanghai Shenhua FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:35 UTC

Final: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 4–5 Shanghai Shenhua FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local)

Prediction 50.77%1.97fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -5.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.77%50.95%50.72%53.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.821.8758.82%55.16%54.95%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Visit)

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -0.796%
Edge -0.210%
Kelly -0.285%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%26.10%26.22%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.543.553.7931.25%28.27%28.17%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.06%4.34fair odd
EV -0.162%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.67%22.94%23.06%24.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.3326.67%25.09%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local): 50.77%; Shanghai Shenhua FC (Visit): 26.18%; Draw: 23.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.33, with an expected value of -0.162%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.34%EV -5.06%E -2.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -2.37%E -0.634%K -0.867%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.91%EV -3.39%E -0.809%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 11:20
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -5.06%E -2.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 11:15
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -3.16%E -0.752%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:30
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:30
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:29
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:29
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 21:30
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -0.162%E -0.037%K -0.049%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:15
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:14
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.08%E -3.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.73%EV -6.59%E -3.58%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 10:49
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 11:29
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 11:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 11:00
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 10:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 10:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 10:39
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 10:39
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.10%E -3.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 11:00
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -7.60%E -4.18%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.47%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 11:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.49%EV -7.60%E -4.18%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.37%EV -7.60%E -4.18%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -11.23%E -2.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 10:50
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.37%EV -7.60%E -4.18%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -11.23%E -2.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 10:50
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.87%EV -7.60%E -4.18%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -13.54%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 11:15
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -8.11%E -4.48%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.87%EV -0.796%E -0.210%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.05%EV -5.70%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 04:49
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.68%EV -8.11%E -4.48%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -1.84%E -0.491%K -0.670%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 11:30
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -3.15%E -0.852%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 11:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.50%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.33%EV -4.20%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 10:25
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 10:43
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 10:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.77%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 10:50
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.54%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.62%E -4.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.54%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 10:50
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.70%EV -9.63%E -5.41%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.70%E -2.81%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-17 21:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.45%EV -9.63%E -5.41%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.74%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.03%EV -10.14%E -5.73%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.83%EV -10.65%E -6.05%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -9.70%E -2.81%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -11.23%E -2.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-17 21:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -11.16%E -6.38%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -10.08%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -11.16%E -6.38%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.38%E -3.26%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-22 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -12.17%E -7.04%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.38%E -3.26%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-17 21:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -12.17%E -7.04%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.38%E -3.26%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-17 21:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -12.68%E -7.37%K -17.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -3.15%E -0.852%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -3.16%E -0.752%K -0.987%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 10:30
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.54%EV -13.70%E -8.06%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -16.24%E -5.07%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -12.38%E -3.26%K -4.42%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-22 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 52.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.11%0.6%2026-08-22 11:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-08-22 11:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-08-22 11:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-08-22 11:30
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.57%1.9%2026-08-22 11:05