La escuela de los momios

Beijing FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Inicio: 2026-04-25 11:35 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Beijing FC (Local)

Predicción 64.96%1.54momio equitativo
EV -4.52%
Ventaja -3.07%
Kelly -9.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.27%64.84%65.01%66.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.341.421.411.4774.63%70.64%70.92%68.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visitante)

Predicción 14.66%6.82momio equitativo
EV -4.11%
Ventaja -0.628%
Kelly -0.742%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.84%14.80%14.58%16.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.216.266.5418.18%16.09%15.97%15.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.38%4.91momio equitativo
EV -2.16%
Ventaja -0.451%
Kelly -0.569%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.08%20.36%20.41%22.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.474.504.8026.67%22.36%22.22%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%EV -4.52%E -3.07%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.57%EV -4.11%E -0.628%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.59%EV -5.63%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 18:40
GTbets1.46I 68.49%NM 64.62%EV -5.17%E -3.54%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 14.79%EV -6.46%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.60%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 13:35
LowVig.ag1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -5.17%E -3.54%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:09
BetOnline.ag1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -5.17%E -3.54%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:10
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 64.72%EV -5.82%E -4.01%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 14.97%EV -8.07%E -1.29%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.31%EV -5.83%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 05:55
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.82%E -4.01%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -8.36%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 05:46
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.82%E -4.01%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -8.36%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 05:49
DraftKings1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.82%E -4.01%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 11:00
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 62.27%EV -5.82%E -4.01%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.70%EV -15.69%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -16.43%E -4.01%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 05:49
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.849%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 07:15
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 07:15
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -15.69%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 12:34
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.39%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:39
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.39%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:40
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.39%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:39
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.39%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -19.36%E -3.52%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.74%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 11:40
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.46%E -4.49%K -14.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -19.36%E -3.52%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.74%E -2.71%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 11:39
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.81%EV -7.11%E -4.97%K -16.54%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.59%EV -6.89%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 18:34
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -7.76%E -5.47%K -18.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.849%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 11:04
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.76%E -5.47%K -18.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 16:54
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -7.76%E -5.47%K -18.49%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV -9.09%E -1.47%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 19:04
Bet Right1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 16:55
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
LeoVegas1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:30
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:34
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.41%E -5.97%K -20.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 19:34
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.849%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 16:55
NordicBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.849%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 13:34
Betsson1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.849%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.37%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -6.16%E -0.963%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 19:35
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 11:54
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.06%E -6.47%K -22.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -19.36%E -3.52%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.39%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-23 23:40
Codere (IT)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -10.36%E -7.51%K -27.27%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.55%EV -9.09%E -1.47%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 13:34
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.17%EV -10.36%E -7.51%K -27.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV -8.36%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 19:30
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.17%EV -10.36%E -7.51%K -27.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV -8.36%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 19:34
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -11.01%E -8.04%K -29.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -2.16%E -0.451%K -0.569%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 11:38
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 65.19%EV -11.01%E -8.04%K -29.76%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV -14.96%E -2.58%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 13:35
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -11.66%E -8.57%K -32.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -4.70%E -0.722%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-21 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 62.92%EV -11.66%E -8.57%K -32.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.26%EV -12.03%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -23.57%E -6.28%K -8.57%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-21 16:55
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.05%EV -12.96%E -9.67%K -38.12%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.28%EV -9.09%E -1.47%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.67%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:34
Winamax (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 64.59%EV -12.96%E -9.67%K -38.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.74%EV -19.36%E -3.52%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.67%EV -10.32%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-23 13:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 65.73%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59%2.1%2026-04-24 00:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 65.65%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38%2.2%2026-04-23 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 65.65%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38%2.2%2026-04-23 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 65.65%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38%2.2%2026-04-23 15:40
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 66.07%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%2.3%2026-04-24 00:30