Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Chile v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-08-10 00:00 UTC

Final: Universidad de Chile 2–1 Palestino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Chile (Local)

Prediction 58.00%1.72fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.79%58.03%58.00%60.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.591.6766.67%62.75%62.89%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 17.87%5.59fair odd
EV +2.78%
Edge +0.483%
Kelly +0.585%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.30%17.82%17.90%19.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.125.005.7521.28%19.52%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.13%4.14fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%24.16%24.10%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.754.0028.57%26.49%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Universidad de Chile (Local): 58.00%; Palestino (Visit): 17.87%; Draw: 24.13%. For Palestino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +2.78%E +0.483%K +0.585%G +0.016%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.90%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 23:55
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +2.78%E +0.483%K +0.585%G +0.016%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.90%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 23:55
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.59%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV +1.89%E +0.331%K +0.401%G +0.008%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.90%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 23:45
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.11%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.95%EV +0.992%E +0.176%K +0.213%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-09 23:45
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -10.10%E -6.52%K -18.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -1.69%E -0.307%K -0.375%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 23:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -13.00%E -8.67%K -26.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -1.69%E -0.307%K -0.375%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -5.90%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 23:34
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -3.14%E -1.88%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.61%EV -2.58%E -0.474%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV -7.11%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.63%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.00%EV -2.58%E -0.474%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 23:34
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.89%EV -3.72%E -2.24%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.66%EV -2.76%E -0.508%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.45%EV -5.18%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 23:55
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -3.48%E -0.644%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -10.73%E -2.90%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 23:40
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -3.48%E -0.644%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -10.73%E -2.90%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 23:40
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.06%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -5.26%E -0.993%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -6.62%E -4.11%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -6.16%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.10%EV -7.78%E -4.90%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -6.16%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 23:55
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.69%EV -3.14%E -1.88%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.20%EV -7.05%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.11%EV -9.04%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -4.90%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -7.05%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 23:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -4.90%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -7.05%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 23:55
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -4.90%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -7.05%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 23:55
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -4.69%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 23:00
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 18:45
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 23:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.74%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.31%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 21:34
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -10.73%E -2.90%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 23:55
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 22:39
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -15.55%E -4.44%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -15.55%E -4.44%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 21:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -15.55%E -4.44%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 20:55
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -11.26%E -7.36%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 23:55
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -11.26%E -7.36%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -13.14%E -3.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 23:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -13.00%E -8.67%K -26.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 23:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.64%EV -13.00%E -8.67%K -26.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -10.63%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -10.73%E -2.90%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-09 23:50
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:20
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:20
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:20
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -11.93%E -3.27%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.37%EV -9.52%E -6.11%K -17.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -4.69%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 21:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.35%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.95%EV -11.26%E -7.36%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -10.73%E -2.90%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 23:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -5.46%E -3.35%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -13.14%E -3.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 23:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -5.46%E -3.35%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -14.20%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -13.14%E -3.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 23:20
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -15.10%E -3.18%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -3.49%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 19:35
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -11.26%E -7.36%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -15.10%E -3.18%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -9.52%E -2.54%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.88%EV -10.68%E -6.94%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.97%EV -15.99%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -7.11%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 59.38%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.89%-0.4%2026-08-09 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-09 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-09 23:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-09 23:50
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-09 23:55
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52%2.0%2026-08-09 22:40

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