Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union La Calera v Colo Colo

2026-08-09 21:30 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union La Calera (Local)

Prediction 20.23%4.94fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.226%
Kelly +0.282%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.01%20.11%20.37%21.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.505.0025.00%22.19%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colo Colo (Visit)

Prediction 53.24%1.88fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -6.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.78%53.41%53.17%55.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.711.7862.50%58.40%58.65%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.54%3.77fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%26.48%26.46%27.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.493.6530.77%28.77%28.69%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union La Calera (Local): 20.23%; Colo Colo (Visit): 53.24%; Draw: 26.54%. For Union La Calera (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.94. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV +1.13%E +0.226%K +0.282%G +0.003%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -7.90%E -4.57%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -3.14%E -0.859%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 02:09
GTbets4.85I 20.62%NM 19.49%EV -1.91%E -0.393%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.18%EV -4.20%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 00:09
Pinnacle4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -2.92%E -0.608%K -0.768%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.08%EV -5.24%E -2.94%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.23%EV -7.91%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 21:50
Unibet (UK)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -3.93%E -0.827%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -11.10%E -6.64%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.46%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 01:20
Marathon Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -4.94%E -1.05%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.30%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.96%EV -8.71%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 22:00
Bovada4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -4.94%E -1.05%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 23:00
1xBet4.68I 21.37%NM 19.92%EV -5.34%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.97%EV -6.30%E -3.58%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.71%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 22:05
LeoVegas4.55I 21.98%NM 19.84%EV -7.97%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.72%EV -12.16%E -7.37%K -18.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-03 01:20
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -8.98%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -5.77%E -3.26%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 22:39
PointsBet (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -8.98%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-03 02:10
SportsBet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -8.98%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -7.90%E -4.57%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-03 02:09
FanDuel4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -8.98%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -8.97%E -5.24%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-03 02:09
Betsson4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -10.00%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -5.24%E -2.94%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 01:54
NordicBet4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -10.00%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -5.24%E -2.94%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 01:54
Paddy Power4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -11.01%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 02:08
888sport4.33I 23.09%NM 20.74%EV -12.42%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 22:25
Mr Green (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.74%EV -12.42%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 22:29
888sport (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.74%EV -12.42%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 22:24
betfred_uk4.33I 23.09%NM 20.74%EV -12.42%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -9.50%E -5.59%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-03 02:08
Winamax (DE)4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -13.03%E -3.03%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -13.76%E -8.49%K -22.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-03 01:19
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.57%EV -15.05%E -3.58%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.01%EV -14.82%E -9.26%K -24.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-03 01:20
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 21.62%EV -19.10%E -4.77%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.78%EV -11.10%E -6.64%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-03 02:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 19.96%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.64%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.41%16.5%2026-08-03 01:20