Language:English
Ñublense v La Serena
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ñublense (Local)
Prediction 47.03%2.13fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.29%47.18%46.99%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.952.0656.18%51.80%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
La Serena (Visit)
Prediction 25.01%4.00fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +0.910%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.88%24.88%25.09%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.703.694.1530.30%27.03%27.10%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.96%3.58fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.608%
Kelly -0.851%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%27.94%27.93%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.273.303.5035.71%30.57%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ñublense (Local): 47.03%; La Serena (Visit): 25.01%; Draw: 27.96%. For La Serena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -10.64%E -5.60%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.88%EV +3.78%E +0.910%K +1.20%G +0.045% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -2.13%E -0.608%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 09:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 09:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 09:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 09:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.42%EV -13.46%E -7.32%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -1.23%E -0.310%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-09 09:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.94%EV -3.59%E -1.75%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.67%EV -2.48%E -0.635%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.39%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.54%EV -3.12%E -1.51%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.58%EV -2.48%E -0.635%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -7.16%E -2.16%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.54%EV -3.12%E -1.51%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.58%EV -2.48%E -0.635%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -7.16%E -2.16%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -15.35%E -8.53%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -2.48%E -0.635%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -4.92%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-15 22:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.21%EV -13.93%E -7.61%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -2.48%E -0.635%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.12%E -2.81%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 23:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.07%EV -6.41%E -3.22%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.59%EV -2.73%E -0.701%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.33%EV -2.13%E -0.608%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.26%EV -4.53%E -2.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.85%EV -3.48%E -0.901%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.89%EV -3.81%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -12.99%E -7.02%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -4.98%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.19%EV -6.88%E -3.47%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.23%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -3.59%E -1.75%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -4.92%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.94%E -2.97%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 23:23 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.88%E -3.47%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 23:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.88%E -3.47%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -6.88%E -3.47%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.48%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.06%EV -7.35%E -3.73%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.19%EV -7.98%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -6.60%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.74%EV -15.35%E -8.53%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.84%EV -7.98%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.93%EV -7.82%E -3.99%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 23:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.73%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -10.17%E -5.33%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.11%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -9.98%E -2.77%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -13.31%E -4.29%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-15 23:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%EV -8.76%E -4.52%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -11.23%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.23%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.31%E -4.29%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.31%E -4.29%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.29%E -4.25%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.31%E -4.29%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.17%E -5.33%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -13.31%E -4.29%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.99%EV -12.05%E -6.45%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -12.48%E -3.57%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.90%EV -11.91%E -3.78%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -5.94%E -2.97%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -14.98%E -4.41%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.12%E -2.81%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -11.58%E -6.16%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -14.98%E -4.41%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -9.12%E -2.81%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-15 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 47.10%EV -16.29%E -9.15%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.41%EV -17.48%E -5.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.49%EV -14.71%E -4.82%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.29%EV -13.93%E -7.61%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.11%EV -17.48%E -5.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.60%EV -21.70%E -7.75%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 20.7% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.84% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 1.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.84% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 1.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.84% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 1.9% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.00% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.07% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.93% | 2.3% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13% | 3.0% | 2026-03-15 23:25 |