Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colo Colo v Deportes Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:32 UTC

Final: Colo Colo 1–1 Deportes Concepción

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colo Colo (Local)

Prediction 65.61%1.52fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.16%65.49%65.51%66.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4975.19%71.61%71.43%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportes Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 13.95%7.17fair odd
EV +0.578%
Edge +0.080%
Kelly +0.093%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 7.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.11%13.94%14.11%15.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.516.607.2117.39%15.37%15.15%13.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.44%4.89fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -0.880%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.63%20.57%20.38%22.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.414.504.6925.00%22.70%22.22%21.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Colo Colo (Local): 65.61%; Deportes Concepción (Visit): 13.95%; Draw: 20.44%. For Deportes Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.578%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.37%EV -5.52%E -3.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%7.21I 13.87%NM 13.26%EV +0.578%E +0.080%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.38%EV -4.13%E -0.880%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 19:21
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.51%EV -2.24%E -1.51%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.50%EV -0.678%E -0.095%K -0.111%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.99%EV -10.67%E -2.44%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 20:25
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -2.35%E -0.336%K -0.392%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 20:19
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.35%E -0.336%K -0.392%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 20:20
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.35%E -0.336%K -0.392%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 20:20
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.34%EV -8.80%E -6.33%K -22.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.35%E -0.336%K -0.392%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 20:21
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.31%EV -6.18%E -4.32%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.52%EV -5.14%E -0.756%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.16%EV -15.17%E -3.65%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 16:05
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.31%EV -6.18%E -4.32%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.52%EV -5.14%E -0.756%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.16%EV -15.17%E -3.65%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -7.49%E -5.31%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 20:20
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 06:34
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.54%EV -12.74%E -9.58%K -38.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.35%EV -11.08%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.54%EV -12.74%E -9.58%K -38.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -5.84%E -0.865%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.35%EV -11.08%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -11.43%E -8.47%K -32.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.48%EV -6.54%E -0.976%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 20:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -6.84%E -4.81%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -7.93%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 19:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -6.84%E -4.81%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -7.93%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 19:10
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -5.52%E -3.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 20:05
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.18%E -4.32%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 04:40
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -6.18%E -4.32%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.84%E -4.81%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 17:49
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 11:05
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 20:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -12.74%E -9.58%K -38.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -9.33%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 20:21
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -6.84%E -4.81%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -12.81%E -2.05%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -14.14%E -3.37%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 20:05
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.21%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -12.81%E -2.05%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -14.14%E -3.37%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 20:25
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.88%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.12%EV -12.81%E -2.05%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -14.14%E -3.37%K -4.42%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 20:21
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -16.30%E -2.72%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 20:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -16.30%E -2.72%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 20:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -16.30%E -2.72%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 20:25
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -16.30%E -2.72%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.01%EV -10.12%E -7.38%K -27.34%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.86%EV -17.70%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -15.17%E -3.65%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-13 20:25
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -19.79%E -3.44%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -19.79%E -3.44%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -19.79%E -3.44%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 04:40
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -19.79%E -3.44%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -11.49%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 04:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.61%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%1.7%2026-09-13 20:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.61%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%1.7%2026-09-13 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.61%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%1.7%2026-09-13 20:21
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%2.0%2026-09-13 19:10