Language:English
Vila Nova v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 43.45%2.30fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.72%43.50%43.57%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.142.2351.28%46.83%46.73%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 27.11%3.69fair odd
EV +3.28%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 3.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%27.07%27.01%29.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.303.8132.26%29.86%30.30%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV +0.106%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.044%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%29.44%29.42%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.4034.48%32.30%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 43.45%; Sport Recife (Visit): 27.11%; Draw: 29.44%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.56%EV -6.15%E -2.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.26%EV +3.28%E +0.860%K +1.17%G +0.038% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.17%EV -6.08%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.38%EV -15.27%E -7.83%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -4.31%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.74%EV -8.32%E -3.94%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 18:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.32%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.49%EV -10.49%E -3.45%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.84%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -9.32%E -3.02%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 18:47 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV +0.106%E +0.031%K +0.044%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 18:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-08 18:43 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 18:43 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -13.10%E -6.55%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-08 18:33 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.56%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.14%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-08 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.14%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
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