Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Vila Nova v Sport Recife

Início: 2026-08-08 19:00 UTC

Final: Vila Nova 0–1 Sport Recife

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Vila Nova (Local)

Previsão 43.45%2.30odd justa
EV -3.11%
Vantagem -1.39%
Kelly -2.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.23

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.72%43.50%43.57%46.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.142.142.2351.28%46.83%46.73%44.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sport Recife (Visitante)

Previsão 27.11%3.69odd justa
EV +3.28%
Vantagem +0.860%
Kelly +1.17%
Crescimento +0.038%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.81

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.44%27.07%27.01%29.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.353.303.8132.26%29.86%30.30%26.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.44%3.40odd justa
EV +0.106%
Vantagem +0.031%
Kelly +0.044%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.40%29.44%29.42%30.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.103.103.4034.48%32.30%32.26%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Vila Nova (Local): 43.45%; Sport Recife (Visitante): 27.11%; Empate: 29.44%. Para Sport Recife (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.69. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.81, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.28%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.56%EV -6.15%E -2.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.26%EV +3.28%E +0.860%K +1.17%G +0.038%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.17%EV -6.08%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.38%EV -15.27%E -7.83%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV +0.294%E +0.079%K +0.109%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -4.31%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 18:44
Bovada🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.74%EV -8.32%E -3.94%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 18:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.32%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.49%EV -10.49%E -3.45%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:55
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:50
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.13%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 18:50
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.84%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -9.32%E -3.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:47
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:35
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.11%E -1.39%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:34
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV +0.106%E +0.031%K +0.044%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 18:43
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:45
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:45
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:43
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -13.10%E -6.55%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:44
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.84%E -0.860%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:45
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.78%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:35
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.25%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 18:34
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -10.20%E -3.34%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:34
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 18:34
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 18:33
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -7.88%E -3.72%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.56%EV -11.67%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.14%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -8.75%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.14%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 18:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%2.0%2026-08-08 18:55