Language:English
Vila Nova v Nautico PE
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 40.19%2.49fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.96%40.11%40.30%41.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.4047.62%43.89%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nautico PE (Visit)
Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV +0.301%
Edge +0.087%
Kelly +0.122%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%29.05%28.81%31.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.123.103.4734.72%32.02%32.26%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.91%3.24fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.496%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%30.84%30.89%32.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.013.003.2038.46%33.26%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 40.19%; Nautico PE (Visit): 28.91%; Draw: 30.91%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.301%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.73%EV +0.301%E +0.087%K +0.122%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.18%EV -7.58%E -2.54%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.24%EV -5.56%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -4.36%E -1.83%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.84%EV -8.51%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -4.36%E -1.83%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.84%EV -8.51%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -9.58%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -9.58%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.63%EV -6.37%E -2.73%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.40%EV -11.91%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 39.83%EV -7.17%E -3.10%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.29%EV -11.91%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -11.59%E -5.27%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.98%E -3.81%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.92%EV -6.77%E -2.92%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.58%EV -6.35%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.50%EV -9.13%E -3.10%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.44%EV -8.38%E -3.67%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.44%EV -8.38%E -3.67%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.55%EV -8.78%E -3.87%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.56%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -2.64%E -0.837%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-20 21:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.09%E -0.341%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-20 21:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -13.60%E -6.33%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.24%EV -15.61%E -7.43%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.26%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.50%EV -19.64%E -7.55%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -5.56%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.58%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -4.18%E -1.35%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-20 21:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -10.39%E -4.66%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -5.73%E -1.88%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.53%EV -11.59%E -5.27%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -5.73%E -1.88%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.59%E -5.27%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -16.17%E -5.58%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -12.80%E -5.90%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -16.17%E -5.58%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -12.80%E -5.90%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -16.17%E -5.58%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -12.80%E -5.90%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -16.17%E -5.58%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.57%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -16.75%E -5.82%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48% | 0.8% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48% | 0.8% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83% | 1.4% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23% | 1.6% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.80% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.08% | 2.1% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |