The School of Odds

Sport Recife v Operario PR

2026-07-18 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sport Recife (Local)

Prediction 48.62%2.06fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -4.01%
Kelly -8.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.58%48.62%48.62%49.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.891.9056%54%53%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Operario PR (Visit)

Prediction 24.24%4.12fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%24.24%24.24%24.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.653.803.903.9027%26%26%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV -6.37%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%27.14%27.14%27.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.453.4531%30%29%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -7.63%E -4.01%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 19:09
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:09
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:09
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:09
betPARX1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:09
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:09
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -8.11%E -4.29%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 19:10
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 48.62%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.09%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 19:09
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -10.30%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-11 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.60%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -10.30%E -2.78%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.36%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-11 19:09
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 48.58%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -11.51%E -3.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-11 19:09
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 48.65%EV -12.49%E -6.94%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -11.51%E -3.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.36%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-11 19:09
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 48.65%EV -12.49%E -6.94%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -11.51%E -3.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.36%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-11 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.