Language:English
Sport Recife v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -5.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.10%44.04%44.14%45.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.092.1250.00%48.06%47.85%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 26.92%3.71fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.14%26.86%26.91%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.6031.25%29.07%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.00%29.10%28.95%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.133.153.3035.71%31.91%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 44.13%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 26.92%; Draw: 28.95%. For Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.68%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.53%EV -3.90%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.79%EV -4.76%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 17:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 26.70%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.94%EV -6.79%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-20 23:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -17.50%E -6.14%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.57%EV -8.20%E -3.94%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.64%EV -6.32%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.79%EV -6.79%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -8.20%E -3.94%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-20 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -8.20%E -3.94%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-20 00:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -8.20%E -3.94%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -4.44%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.51%EV -8.65%E -4.18%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-24 03:06 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.05%EV -8.65%E -4.18%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.05%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -9.09%E -4.41%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 23:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 12:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 17:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.82%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.82%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-23 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 12:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.03%EV -9.97%E -4.89%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-22 01:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.03%EV -9.97%E -4.89%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-22 01:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.03%EV -9.97%E -4.89%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-22 08:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -18.94%E -6.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-20 00:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.08% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.08% | 9.0% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.08% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.08% | 9.0% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.86% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71% | 12.2% | 2026-04-23 09:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.65% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 30.10% | 13.0% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.57% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 30.70% | 13.9% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |