Language:English
Sport Recife v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 46.82%2.14fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.75%46.82%46.84%50.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.941.952.0557.14%51.67%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.620%
Kelly +0.803%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 4.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%23.42%23.45%25.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.984.004.3827.78%25.14%25.00%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -0.402%
Edge -0.120%
Kelly -0.171%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.80%29.76%29.71%30.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.103.3533.33%32.02%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 46.82%; Botafogo (Visit): 23.45%; Draw: 29.73%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.37%EV +2.71%E +0.620%K +0.803%G +0.022% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.39%EV -8.43%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -14.32%E -7.83%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.92%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.12%EV -2.45%E -0.588%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.96%EV -4.56%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-10 22:58 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.10%EV -16.19%E -9.05%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.34%EV -8.24%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.91%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -7.24%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.38%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -7.30%E -3.69%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 22:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.97%EV -16.66%E -9.36%K -21.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.89%EV -17.13%E -9.68%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.95%EV -18.07%E -10.32%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.95%EV -18.07%E -10.32%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -7.30%E -3.69%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -9.64%E -4.99%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-10 22:56 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -10.58%E -5.54%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 1.5% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34% | 3.0% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
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