La escuela de los momiosSport Recife v Botafogo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sport Recife (Local)
Predicción 46.82%2.14momio equitativo
EV -4.02%
Ventaja -1.96%
Kelly -3.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.75%46.82%46.84%50.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.751.941.952.0557.14%51.67%51.28%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Botafogo (Visitante)
Predicción 23.45%4.26momio equitativo
EV +2.71%
Ventaja +0.620%
Kelly +0.803%
Crecimiento +0.022%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.37%23.42%23.45%25.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.984.004.3827.78%25.14%25.00%22.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.73%3.36momio equitativo
EV -0.402%
Ventaja -0.120%
Kelly -0.171%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.80%29.76%29.71%30.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.123.103.3533.33%32.02%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.37%EV +2.71%E +0.620%K +0.803%G +0.022% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.39%EV -8.43%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Casumo | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| betPARX | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -13.39%E -7.24%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV +0.838%E +0.195%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -0.402%E -0.120%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -14.32%E -7.83%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.92%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.12%EV -2.45%E -0.588%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.96%EV -4.56%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| SportsBet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| FanDuel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-10 22:58 |
| Grosvenor | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.10%EV -16.19%E -9.05%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -3.85%E -0.940%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.34%EV -8.24%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.91%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -7.24%E -2.32%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| BetUS | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.38%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -7.30%E -3.69%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 22:58 |
| Betway | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.97%EV -16.66%E -9.36%K -21.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| TABtouch | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.89%EV -17.13%E -9.68%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.95%EV -18.07%E -10.32%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.95%EV -18.07%E -10.32%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| DraftKings | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Bovada | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -7.30%E -3.69%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| theScore Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Bet Victor | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -9.64%E -4.99%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-10 22:56 |
| betfred_uk | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -10.58%E -5.54%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| BetMGM | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| PlayUp | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -5.43%E -2.69%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Neds | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 22:59 |
| Coral | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Matchbook | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 1.5% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |
| Smarkets | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34% | 3.0% | 2026-07-10 23:00 |