Language:English
São Bernardo v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
São Bernardo (Local)
Prediction 46.36%2.16fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%46.41%46.27%49.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.022.012.1054.64%49.55%49.63%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 21.85%4.58fair odd
EV +0.487%
Edge +0.106%
Kelly +0.135%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.06%21.79%22.03%23.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.234.254.6026.67%23.64%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.60%31.80%31.71%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.843.0237.74%35.26%35.15%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 46.36%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 21.85%; Draw: 31.80%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.487%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +0.487%E +0.106%K +0.135%G +0.001% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.77%EV -9.06%E -3.17%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.13%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.04%EV -0.168%E -0.037%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -3.97%E -1.32%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.41%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 20.70%EV -1.26%E -0.279%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.89%EV -12.24%E -4.44%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -15.16%E -8.29%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.39%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.77%EV -10.02%E -3.54%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-03 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.75%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -12.56%E -4.57%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-03 18:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -6.07%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.64%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -6.07%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:52 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.49%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -7.16%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -7.16%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-03 18:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.34%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.15%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 18:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.34%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.15%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.05%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -10.44%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.78%EV -5.89%E -2.90%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -4.61%E -1.54%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.91%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.54%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -15.90%E -4.13%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -12.56%E -4.57%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-03 18:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.63%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.13%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-03 18:36 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.32% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54% | 0.6% | 2026-05-03 18:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.08% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89% | 1.2% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.83% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 1.7% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.83% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 1.7% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.10% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.81% | 3.1% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |