La escuela de los momios

São Bernardo v Ponte Preta

Inicio: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 3–0 Ponte Preta

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

São Bernardo (Local)

Predicción 46.36%2.16momio equitativo
EV -2.65%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.54%46.41%46.27%49.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.832.022.012.1054.64%49.55%49.63%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Ponte Preta (Visitante)

Predicción 21.85%4.58momio equitativo
EV +0.487%
Ventaja +0.106%
Kelly +0.135%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.06%21.79%22.03%23.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.234.254.6026.67%23.64%23.53%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.80%3.14momio equitativo
EV -3.97%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -1.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.60%31.80%31.71%33.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.652.842.843.0237.74%35.26%35.15%33.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV +0.487%E +0.106%K +0.135%G +0.001%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.77%EV -9.06%E -3.17%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:50
Pinnacle2.04I 49.02%NM 47.13%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.04%EV -0.168%E -0.037%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -3.97%E -1.32%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 18:45
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.41%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.70%EV -1.26%E -0.279%K -0.358%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.89%EV -12.24%E -4.44%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 18:55
LowVig.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:55
BetOnline.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 46.86%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -15.16%E -8.29%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -1.70%E -0.377%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-03 18:40
Marathon Bet2.01I 49.75%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.39%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.77%EV -10.02%E -3.54%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 18:55
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 18:35
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -9.60%E -4.92%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -3.88%E -0.882%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 18:35
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Svenska Spel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:56
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.79%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 44.75%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -12.56%E -4.57%K -7.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 18:46
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -6.07%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 18:55
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 45.64%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -6.07%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 18:52
Grosvenor2.06I 48.54%NM 44.49%EV -4.50%E -2.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -7.16%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -7.16%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 18:45
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 18:50
TABtouch2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -14.15%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 18:56
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 18:35
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 18:45
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 18:45
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -6.36%E -3.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.74%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 18:45
NordicBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.34%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.15%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 18:51
Betsson2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.34%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.15%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Codere (IT)1.99I 50.25%NM 46.05%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -10.44%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.79%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 18:50
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.78%EV -5.89%E -2.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -4.61%E -1.54%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 18:56
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.91%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 18:55
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 18:55
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 18:55
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 18:56
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-03 18:50
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 43.54%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -15.90%E -4.13%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -12.56%E -4.57%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 18:50
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -8.43%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.63%EV -11.46%E -6.00%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.13%EV -10.97%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-03 18:36
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.32%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-05-03 18:54
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.08%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-05-03 18:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.83%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%1.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.83%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%1.7%2026-05-03 18:56
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.81%3.1%2026-05-03 18:55