The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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São Bernardo v Botafogo-SP

2026-08-14 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 40.81%2.45fair odd
EV -8.18%
Edge -3.64%
Kelly -6.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%40.81%40.81%41.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.212.252.2546.73%45.19%44.44%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo-SP (Visit)

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%29.84%29.84%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.153.1533.90%32.50%31.75%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.36%3.41fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.09%29.36%29.36%29.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.203.2033.33%32.02%31.25%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: São Bernardo (Local): 40.81%; Botafogo-SP (Visit): 29.84%; Draw: 29.36%. For Botafogo-SP (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.15, with an expected value of -6.01%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.18%E -3.64%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.01%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:55
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -9.00%E -4.04%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -9.00%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-07 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.96%EV -11.04%E -5.06%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-07 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.07%EV -11.45%E -5.27%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-07 23:00
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -11.85%E -5.49%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.51%EV -10.49%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.51%EV -11.93%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-07 23:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.00%EV -12.67%E -5.92%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -11.98%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -11.93%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-07 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.00%EV -12.67%E -5.92%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -11.98%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -11.93%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-07 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.