Idioma:Español
São Bernardo v Botafogo-SP
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
São Bernardo (Local)
Predicción 37.74%2.65momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.871%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.59
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.68%37.89%37.64%40.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.412.402.5944.44%41.43%41.67%38.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Botafogo-SP (Visitante)
Predicción 30.45%3.28momio equitativo
EV -4.09%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -1.90%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.17%30.36%30.57%31.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.873.033.003.1534.84%33.01%33.33%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.81%3.14momio equitativo
EV -4.56%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -2.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.65%31.75%31.80%32.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.892.903.0036.36%34.62%34.48%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: São Bernardo (Local): 37.74%; Botafogo-SP (Visitante): 30.45%; Empate: 31.81%. Para São Bernardo (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.65. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.59, con un valor esperado de -2.26%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.16%EV -2.26%E -0.871%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.55%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.29%EV -5.20%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -3.77%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -4.90%E -1.94%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -4.90%E -1.94%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -9.34%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 21:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.50%EV -7.44%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.42%EV -9.02%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 22:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 36.99%EV -6.03%E -2.42%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.70%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.31%EV -9.34%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 20:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 19:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -9.34%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 19:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -9.34%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 19:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -7.54%E -3.08%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -11.70%E -4.03%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.34%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 37.47%EV -7.92%E -3.24%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -10.18%E -3.45%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-14 19:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 21:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.43%E -3.93%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.09%EV -9.80%E -4.10%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -4.09%E -1.30%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.25%EV -4.88%E -1.63%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.06%EV -10.18%E -4.28%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.70%E -4.03%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.71%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -10.18%E -4.28%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -12.31%E -4.27%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -10.18%E -4.28%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -12.31%E -4.27%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -10.18%E -4.28%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.15%EV -12.31%E -4.27%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.15%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.84%EV -10.56%E -4.45%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.61%E -4.39%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.84%EV -10.56%E -4.45%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.61%E -4.39%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 21:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.66%EV -11.31%E -4.81%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -7.13%E -2.34%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.55%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.43%EV -12.45%E -5.36%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-14 21:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -13.20%E -5.74%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.20%E -5.74%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-14 21:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.20%E -5.74%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.65%E -2.88%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-14 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.43%EV -13.95%E -6.12%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.70%EV -10.18%E -3.45%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -12.52%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.43%EV -13.95%E -6.12%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.70%EV -10.18%E -3.45%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -12.52%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -15.09%E -6.71%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -5.61%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.72% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.88% | 1.2% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |