Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ponte Preta v Nautico PE

2026-08-14 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ponte Preta (Local)

Prediction 24.00%4.17fair odd
EV -6.39%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%24.00%24.00%24.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.813.903.9027.40%26.26%25.64%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 48.77%2.05fair odd
EV -7.33%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -8.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.60%48.77%48.77%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.891.9055.56%53.74%52.91%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%27.23%27.23%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.453.4531.25%29.75%28.99%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ponte Preta (Local): 24.00%; Nautico PE (Visit): 48.77%; Draw: 27.23%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.45, with an expected value of -6.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -7.33%E -3.86%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 23:00
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:00
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -7.82%E -4.14%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.07%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:00
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.79%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.77%EV -8.79%E -4.70%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -8.79%E -2.63%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-07 23:05
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.19%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -10.75%E -5.87%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-07 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -11.19%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.60%EV -10.75%E -5.87%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.36%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-07 23:00
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.19%E -3.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.74%EV -11.23%E -6.17%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-07 22:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -12.39%E -3.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.65%EV -12.21%E -6.78%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.36%EV -12.88%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-07 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -12.39%E -3.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.65%EV -12.21%E -6.78%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.36%EV -12.88%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-07 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.