Language:English
Ponte Preta v Nautico PE
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV -0.228%
Edge -0.053%
Kelly -0.070%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%23.41%23.39%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.893.904.2627.40%25.72%25.64%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nautico PE (Visit)
Prediction 48.90%2.05fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.58%48.97%48.78%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.881.881.9454.64%53.10%53.19%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.647%
Kelly -0.902%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.55%27.62%27.83%28.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.293.303.5332.79%30.40%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 23.42%; Nautico PE (Visit): 48.90%; Draw: 27.68%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.26, with an expected value of -0.228%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.54%EV -0.228%E -0.053%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.27%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.20%EV -2.28%E -0.647%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -4.50%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.90%EV -9.05%E -4.87%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.46%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 22:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 22:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 22:27 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.58%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.19%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.20%EV -14.51%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.75%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.06% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |