Idioma:Español
Ponte Preta v Nautico PE
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ponte Preta (Local)
Predicción 23.42%4.27momio equitativo
EV -0.228%
Ventaja -0.053%
Kelly -0.070%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.26
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.49%23.41%23.39%24.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.653.893.904.2627.40%25.72%25.64%23.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nautico PE (Visitante)
Predicción 48.90%2.05momio equitativo
EV -5.14%
Ventaja -2.65%
Kelly -5.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.58%48.97%48.78%50.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.881.881.9454.64%53.10%53.19%51.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.68%3.61momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -0.647%
Kelly -0.902%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.55%27.62%27.83%28.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.293.303.5332.79%30.40%30.30%28.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ponte Preta (Local): 23.42%; Nautico PE (Visitante): 48.90%; Empate: 27.68%. Para Ponte Preta (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.27. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.26, con un valor esperado de -0.228%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.54%EV -0.228%E -0.053%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.27%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.20%EV -2.28%E -0.647%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 22:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -4.50%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.90%EV -9.05%E -4.87%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.46%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 22:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 22:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 22:27 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 22:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.58%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.19%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-14 21:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.20%EV -14.51%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.75%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-14 22:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.06% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-08-14 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |