Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ponte Preta v Nautico PE

Início: 2026-08-14 22:30 UTC

Final: Ponte Preta 1–1 Nautico PE

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ponte Preta (Local)

Previsão 23.42%4.27odd justa
EV -0.228%
Vantagem -0.053%
Kelly -0.070%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.49%23.41%23.39%24.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.653.893.904.2627.40%25.72%25.64%23.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nautico PE (Visitante)

Previsão 48.90%2.05odd justa
EV -5.14%
Vantagem -2.65%
Kelly -5.47%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.94

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.58%48.97%48.78%50.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.831.881.881.9454.64%53.10%53.19%51.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.68%3.61odd justa
EV -2.28%
Vantagem -0.647%
Kelly -0.902%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.53

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.55%27.62%27.83%28.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.293.303.5332.79%30.40%30.30%28.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ponte Preta (Local): 23.42%; Nautico PE (Visitante): 48.90%; Empate: 27.68%. Para Ponte Preta (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.27. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 4.26, com valor esperado de -0.228%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯4.26I 23.47%NM 22.54%EV -0.228%E -0.053%K -0.070%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.27%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.20%EV -2.28%E -0.647%K -0.902%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 22:20
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 22:24
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 22:24
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 22:25
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
BetUS🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -4.50%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 22:29
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.90%EV -9.05%E -4.87%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.46%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 22:29
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.97%E -0.969%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:28
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -3.11%E -0.890%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 22:24
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 22:00
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 22:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 22:04
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 22:24
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 22:28
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 22:27
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 22:14
Betsson🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 22:04
NordicBet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 22:09
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -9.83%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 21:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 22:09
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.00%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-14 22:24
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 22:14
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 22:15
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 22:24
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 21:49
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 22:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 22:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 22:25
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 22:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.58%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.19%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 21:49
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -12.17%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-14 22:29
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-14 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -13.34%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.61%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.72%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-14 21:49
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.20%EV -14.51%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.75%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-14 22:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-08-14 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-08-14 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-08-14 22:15
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-08-14 22:25
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-08-14 22:25