The School of Odds

Ponte Preta v Goiás

2026-07-18 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ponte Preta (Local)

Prediction 24.19%4.13fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.87%24.19%24.19%24.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.903.9028%26%26%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Goiás (Visit)

Prediction 47.01%2.13fair odd
EV -7.40%
Edge -3.75%
Kelly -7.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.90%47.01%47.01%47.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.861.931.961.9754%52%51%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV -6.40%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%28.80%28.80%28.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.253.2533%31%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.36%EV -7.40%E -3.75%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 19:34
Unibet (NL)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:34
Casumo3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:34
Unibet (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:34
betPARX3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:35
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:34
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.87%E -4.01%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 19:34
BetRivers3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -9.28%E -4.81%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-11 19:34
Grosvenor3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -10.22%E -5.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 19:34
LeoVegas (SE)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -11.70%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.00%EV -11.16%E -5.90%K -12.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-11 19:34
TABtouch3.65I 27.40%NM 24.28%EV -11.70%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.14%EV -11.63%E -6.18%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-11 19:04
LiveScore Bet3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -12.91%E -3.59%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.03%EV -12.57%E -6.76%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-11 19:04
Virgin Bet3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -12.91%E -3.59%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.03%EV -12.57%E -6.76%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-11 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.