Language:English
Ponte Preta v Goiás
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.258%
Kelly +0.308%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 6.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.59%16.36%16.33%18.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.505.506.2020.00%18.17%18.18%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Goiás (Visit)
Prediction 57.68%1.73fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%57.76%57.77%60.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.601.6666.67%62.79%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.735%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.12%25.88%25.90%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.503.7530.30%28.15%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 16.39%; Goiás (Visit): 57.68%; Draw: 25.93%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE) | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.59%EV +1.60%E +0.258%K +0.308%G +0.005% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.29%EV -13.48%E -8.99%K -26.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -1.67%E -0.279%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.01%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -1.67%E -0.279%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.01%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| BetUS | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -1.67%E -0.279%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.01%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| William Hill | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -1.67%E -0.279%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.09%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -14.43%E -4.37%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| SportsBet | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -3.31%E -0.562%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.70%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| FanDuel | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -3.31%E -0.562%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.85%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -4.95%E -0.854%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.28%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| DraftKings | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Coolbet | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| Betway | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.78%EV -8.29%E -5.21%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| Bet Victor | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.96%EV -10.59%E -6.84%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| betano_uk | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.96%EV -10.59%E -6.84%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:54 |
| Pinnacle | 5.73I 17.45%NM 16.72%EV -6.10%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.72%EV -4.25%E -2.56%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.55%EV -2.76%E -0.735%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| LeoVegas | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.05%EV -4.83%E -2.93%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| NordicBet | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| Betsson | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| 888sport | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-18 18:59 |
| Paddy Power | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| BetMGM | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-18 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.40%EV -10.59%E -6.84%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-18 18:45 |
| betfred_uk | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -9.87%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:25 |
| Unibet | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Casumo | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| betPARX | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Bovada | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.94%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.94%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-18 18:53 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -11.51%E -2.13%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%EV -6.56%E -4.05%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -10.54%E -3.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Coral | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -13.97%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-18 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -13.97%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-18 18:30 |
| Neds | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -13.97%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-18 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -13.97%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-18 18:30 |
| BetRivers | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -14.78%E -2.84%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-18 18:15 |
| Grosvenor | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -16.42%E -3.22%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -16.42%E -3.22%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.09%EV -10.02%E -6.42%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| PlayUp | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| TABtouch | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.68%EV -10.02%E -6.42%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -10.54%E -3.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| BoyleSports | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-18 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -11.17%E -7.25%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -10.54%E -3.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -11.17%E -7.25%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -10.54%E -3.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.14% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Matchbook | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.69% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74% | 0.9% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |
| Smarkets | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.29% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.61% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.10% | 2.2% | 2026-07-18 19:00 |