Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Juventude
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 49.12%2.04fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.80%49.13%49.09%52.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.891.881.9758.14%52.93%53.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juventude (Visit)
Prediction 21.17%4.72fair odd
EV +3.53%
Edge +0.722%
Kelly +0.908%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 4.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.23%21.13%21.17%22.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.344.334.8925.00%23.03%23.09%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%29.74%29.74%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.023.2536.36%33.05%33.06%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 49.12%; Juventude (Visit): 21.17%; Draw: 29.71%. For Juventude (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.77%EV -7.17%E -3.79%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.62%EV +3.53%E +0.722%K +0.908%G +0.032% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.61%EV -3.73%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -9.14%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.96%EV -0.490%E -0.104%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -0.490%E -0.104%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 18:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -15.52%E -9.02%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.23%EV -0.490%E -0.104%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.84%EV -1.55%E -0.333%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 18:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -4.72%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -8.15%E -4.36%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -4.72%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -4.72%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -4.72%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-09 18:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -5.78%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -9.38%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -5.78%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -9.38%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -3.24%E -1.65%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.57%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.06%EV -8.15%E -4.36%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -9.38%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 18:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.26%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.26%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -6.84%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.69%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -8.32%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 18:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -9.14%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -8.32%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-09 18:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -8.15%E -4.36%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.32%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.35%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -8.96%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.35%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -8.96%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.35%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -8.96%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 18:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.07%EV -8.96%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.21%E -2.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 18:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-09 18:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-09 18:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.96%EV -5.21%E -2.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -14.43%E -5.01%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.32%EV -7.17%E -3.79%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.38%EV -15.32%E -5.38%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.11%EV -9.14%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.69%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.11%EV -9.14%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.69%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 18:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.19%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.08%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.69%EV -16.81%E -6.00%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -13.19%E -3.22%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.95%EV -7.66%E -4.08%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -13.19%E -3.22%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.52%EV -16.81%E -6.00%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-09 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.95%EV -8.64%E -4.65%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.30%EV -13.19%E -3.22%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -18.29%E -6.65%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.95%EV -8.64%E -4.65%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.30%EV -13.19%E -3.22%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -18.29%E -6.65%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.19%E -3.24%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -15.31%E -3.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -15.31%E -3.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.03% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 18:55 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.