Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino v Avai

Início: 2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio Novorizontino 3–1 Avai

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Previsão 63.43%1.58odd justa
EV -6.13%
Vantagem -4.14%
Kelly -12.77%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.48

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
61.66%63.39%63.32%64.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.401.451.441.4871.43%69.19%69.44%67.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Avai (Visitante)

Previsão 13.55%7.38odd justa
EV -1.50%
Vantagem -0.206%
Kelly -0.239%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.27

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.90%13.64%13.56%16.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.667.007.2718.18%15.01%14.29%13.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.03%4.34odd justa
EV -2.14%
Vantagem -0.504%
Kelly -0.659%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.04%22.97%23.12%24.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.753.974.004.2526.67%25.16%25.00%23.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 63.43%; Avai (Visitante): 13.55%; Empate: 23.03%. Para Avai (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.38. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 7.27, com valor esperado de -1.50%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.23%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 09:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 08:00
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.20%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -18.71%E -3.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.96%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 12.93%EV -1.50%E -0.206%K -0.239%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.10%EV -6.28%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 07:40
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:55
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:54
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:53
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.75%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:54
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.39%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 04:15
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.38%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.03%EV -3.13%E -0.437%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.57%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 07:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.48%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.05%EV -3.80%E -0.536%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.86%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.91%EV -10.58%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.86%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.91%EV -10.58%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 15:05
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.59%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.28%EV -13.29%E -2.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 08:00
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.59%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.28%EV -13.29%E -2.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 08:00
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -1.77%E -0.244%K -0.284%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -2.14%E -0.504%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 06:15
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -1.77%E -0.244%K -0.284%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.29%E -0.784%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 06:15
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-01 07:34
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.05%E -2.29%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 02:45
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -13.65%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.58%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -3.29%E -0.784%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 11:54
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 12:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 12:39
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.20%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 05:35
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 05:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.44%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.50%EV -16.00%E -2.58%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -10.20%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 07:59
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -25.48%E -4.63%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 11:29
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -25.48%E -4.63%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -25.48%E -4.63%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 11:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -25.48%E -4.63%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 11:29
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -3.29%E -0.784%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.03%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 06:15
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.70%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.01%EV -13.29%E -2.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -11.35%E -2.95%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 10:50
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.55%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -5.59%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.87%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.95%EV -13.29%E -2.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.35%E -2.95%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 10:54
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.84%EV -10.57%E -7.50%K -25.78%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.84%EV -13.29%E -2.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -12.50%E -3.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -5.16%E -0.737%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-01 06:14
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-01 06:15
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -11.93%E -1.84%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.90%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 19:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.60%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.02%EV -15.32%E -2.45%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -13.65%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-04 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.60%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.02%EV -15.32%E -2.45%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -13.65%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-04 10:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%7.4%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 63.32%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.64%12.8%2026-09-04 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 39.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 8.04%1.10I 90.91%NM 52.60%72.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 39.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 8.04%1.10I 90.91%NM 52.60%72.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 39.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 8.04%1.10I 90.91%NM 52.60%72.8%2026-09-04 14:35