Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 60.31%1.66fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -10.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.78%60.45%60.28%63.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.511.5670.42%66.17%66.23%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 15.10%6.62fair odd
EV +8.86%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.127%
assuming max odds 7.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.27%14.96%15.21%16.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.156.007.2117.39%16.27%16.67%13.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.59%4.07fair odd
EV +0.810%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.261%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%24.59%24.52%26.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.704.1028.57%26.79%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 60.31%; América Mineiro (Visit): 15.10%; Draw: 24.59%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.62. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.34%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 7.21I 13.87%NM 13.27%EV +8.86%E +1.23%K +1.43%G +0.127% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.38%EV -7.30%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.67%EV -7.12%E -4.62%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +5.69%E +0.813%K +0.949%G +0.054% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV +0.810%E +0.198%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.6% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.69%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.80%EV +1.92%E +0.284%K +0.334%G +0.006% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-20 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.07%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV +1.92%E +0.284%K +0.334%G +0.006% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.45%EV -14.36%E -10.11%K -34.18%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.45%EV +1.16%E +0.174%K +0.204%G +0.002% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-20 22:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.15%EV -0.347%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.15%EV -0.347%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.86%E -0.286%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.80%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.36%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.86%E -0.286%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.68%EV -10.13%E -6.80%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -1.86%E -0.286%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-20 22:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.60%EV -11.34%E -7.71%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -1.86%E -0.286%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-20 23:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.08%EV -13.15%E -9.13%K -29.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -1.86%E -0.286%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-20 23:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -3.37%E -0.526%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -2.88%E -0.729%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.80%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.93%E -5.91%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -5.63%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.94%EV -6.39%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.51%EV -7.06%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -7.12%E -4.62%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-19 23:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 23:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-20 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-20 22:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.78%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -13.94%E -3.98%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-20 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.94%E -3.98%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-20 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.94%E -3.98%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.94%E -3.98%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.47%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -12.71%E -3.58%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-20 23:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -9.41%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.44%EV -10.92%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-20 23:23 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.44%EV -10.92%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-20 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.82%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.78%EV -12.43%E -2.14%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.80%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.42%EV -10.74%E -7.25%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.42%EV -12.43%E -2.14%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.58%EV -11.34%E -7.71%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.35%EV -12.43%E -2.14%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-20 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.71%EV -12.55%E -8.65%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.18%EV -12.43%E -2.14%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.12%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.02%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -2.88%E -0.729%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.13%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.13%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-20 22:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-20 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-20 22:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.01%EV -9.53%E -6.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-20 22:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.63%EV -12.55%E -8.65%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.29%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.63%EV -12.55%E -8.65%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.29%EV -13.18%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -10.25%E -2.81%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-20 23:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.76% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.76% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.76% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-20 23:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.91% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.00% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.09% | 1.2% | 2026-08-20 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.21% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.90% | 2.1% | 2026-08-20 23:29 |