Language:English
Goiás v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Goiás (Local)
Prediction 40.22%2.49fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%40.37%40.18%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.242.272.4249.50%44.60%44.05%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 28.01%3.57fair odd
EV +0.851%
Edge +0.236%
Kelly +0.327%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.88%28.02%28.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.373.333.6032.05%29.71%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.77%3.15fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.42%31.75%31.80%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.912.903.0535.71%34.31%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 40.22%; Ceará (Visit): 28.01%; Draw: 31.77%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.851%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -13.93%E -6.51%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.851%E +0.236%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -15.54%E -7.40%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -1.95%E -0.557%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.95%EV -3.08%E -1.28%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.74%EV -2.79%E -0.804%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.31%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.57%EV -17.15%E -8.33%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -3.35%E -0.971%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.91%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.39%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.91%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.39%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.91%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.39%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.49%E -2.34%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.49%E -2.34%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -13.53%E -6.29%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-04 22:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -17.55%E -8.56%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.41%EV -17.96%E -8.80%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -4.75%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.54%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.40%EV -18.76%E -9.29%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -6.15%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.44%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.40%EV -18.76%E -9.29%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -6.15%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.44%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-04 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.48%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 21:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.59%EV -7.24%E -2.48%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.59%EV -7.24%E -2.48%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.58%EV -9.11%E -4.03%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 21:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.55%E -2.29%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.63%EV -5.89%E -2.52%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.28%EV -8.11%E -2.47%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.09%EV -8.19%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -3.48%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 21:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.95%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -3.48%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.36%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 22:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.36%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-04 21:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -11.76%E -3.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-04 22:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.05%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.88%EV -12.60%E -4.04%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-04 22:26 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 0.5% | 2026-07-04 22:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39% | 1.2% | 2026-07-04 22:55 |