L’École des cotes

Cuiabá v Vila Nova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC

Score final : Cuiabá 1–0 Vila Nova

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cuiabá (Local)

Prévision 44.49%2.25cote équitable
EV +0.094%
Avantage +0.042%
Kelly +0.075%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.08%44.44%44.41%46.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.912.102.102.2552.36%47.63%47.62%44.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Vila Nova (Visiteur)

Prévision 23.12%4.32cote équitable
EV +5.90%
Avantage +1.29%
Kelly +1.65%
Croissance +0.097%

avec la cote maximale 4.58

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.88%23.14%23.34%26.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.833.804.5830.77%26.11%26.32%21.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.39%3.09cote équitable
EV -4.44%
Avantage -1.51%
Kelly -2.28%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.10%32.42%32.25%35.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.822.802.9541.67%35.43%35.71%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 45.59%EV -6.13%E -2.91%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.00%EV +5.90%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.097%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.40%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-14 19:50
LowVig.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 45.24%EV -7.47%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV +4.05%E +0.900%K +1.16%G +0.047%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.85%EV -9.95%E -3.58%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-14 19:50
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 46.28%EV -9.69%E -4.78%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV +4.05%E +0.900%K +1.16%G +0.047%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.85%EV -7.36%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-14 19:50
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.49%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV +1.74%E +0.394%K +0.511%G +0.009%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-14 19:40
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 45.75%EV -10.14%E -5.02%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV +1.74%E +0.394%K +0.511%G +0.009%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.24%EV -9.95%E -3.58%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-14 19:48
BetUS2.02I 49.50%NM 45.75%EV -10.14%E -5.02%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV +1.74%E +0.394%K +0.511%G +0.009%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.24%EV -9.95%E -3.58%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-14 19:50
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.03%E -5.51%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV +0.117%E +0.027%K +0.035%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-14 19:40
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.20%EV -8.36%E -4.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.55%EV -0.114%E -0.026%K -0.034%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.25%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-14 19:50
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -0.576%E -0.134%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -7.68%E -2.70%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-14 19:40
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.39%EV -9.25%E -4.53%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -0.576%E -0.134%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.07%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-14 19:50
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -2.89%E -0.688%K -0.903%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-14 19:40
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.03%E -5.51%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -2.89%E -0.688%K -0.903%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -12.54%E -4.64%K -7.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-14 19:40
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.60%EV -7.47%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.51%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-14 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 43.99%EV -15.03%E -7.87%K -16.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.00%EV -7.51%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.01%EV -22.26%E -9.27%K -15.90%G +0.000%19.0%2026-06-14 19:39
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 44.42%EV -8.36%E -4.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.68%E -2.70%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-14 19:40
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.44%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:40
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.44%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:40
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.44%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:40
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.44%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:40
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -13.25%E -6.80%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-14 19:50
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.07%EV -5.69%E -2.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -10.98%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.67%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-14 19:30
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -10.98%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-14 19:30
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -6.06%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:30
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -7.68%E -2.70%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-14 19:30
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -11.03%E -5.51%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -12.14%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.27%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-14 19:20
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -3.02%E -1.39%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -13.29%E -3.54%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.83%EV -8.65%E -3.07%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-12 06:50
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.58%E -3.13%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -13.29%E -3.54%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.06%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-14 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -14.45%E -3.91%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-14 19:30
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -14.45%E -3.91%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-14 19:30
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -14.45%E -3.91%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-14 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -14.45%E -3.91%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-14 19:30
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV +0.094%E +0.042%K +0.075%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -16.76%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.25%EV -9.95%E -3.58%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-14 19:50
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.80%E -4.29%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -16.76%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-14 19:29
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:40
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -0.796%E -0.357%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -19.07%E -5.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.44%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-14 19:38
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -2.13%E -0.969%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -21.39%E -6.29%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-14 19:40
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 41.39%EV -3.91%E -1.81%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -22.54%E -6.73%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-14 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -4.36%E -2.03%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -23.70%E -7.18%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-14 19:40
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 41.45%EV -4.80%E -2.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -23.70%E -7.18%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-14 19:40
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 41.27%EV -5.69%E -2.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -24.85%E -7.65%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-14 19:37
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 41.27%EV -5.69%E -2.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -24.85%E -7.65%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-14 19:40
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 41.27%EV -5.69%E -2.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -24.85%E -7.65%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -10.92%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-14 19:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-06-14 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-06-14 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-06-14 19:50
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-06-14 19:50
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.95%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04%1.6%2026-06-14 19:50