L’École des cotes

Criciuma v São Bernardo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-27 19:02 UTC

Score final : Criciuma 1–0 São Bernardo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

41 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Criciuma (Local)

Prévision 56.91%1.76cote équitable
EV -2.68%
Avantage -1.57%
Kelly -3.78%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.71

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.33%56.83%56.89%59.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.521.641.631.7165.79%61.07%61.35%58.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

São Bernardo (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.19%6.18cote équitable
EV +0.839%
Avantage +0.135%
Kelly +0.161%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 6.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.40%16.31%16.17%18.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.805.465.506.2320.83%18.30%18.18%16.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.90%3.72cote équitable
EV -3.14%
Avantage -0.873%
Kelly -1.21%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.07%26.87%26.95%28.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.363.353.6033.33%29.77%29.85%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.66I 60.24%NM 57.80%EV -5.53%E -3.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%6.23I 16.05%NM 15.40%EV +0.839%E +0.135%K +0.161%G +0.001%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.80%EV -3.68%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-27 18:59
1xBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.36%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.77%EV -4.02%E -0.677%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.87%EV -6.37%E -1.83%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 18:59
BetOnline.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 57.41%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -4.50%E -0.763%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 19:00
LowVig.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 57.41%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -4.50%E -0.763%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 18:55
BetUS1.63I 61.35%NM 57.41%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -4.50%E -0.763%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 18:59
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.71%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -4.50%E -0.763%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 19:00
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.78%EV -6.12%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-27 18:59
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -13.50%E -8.88%K -25.96%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -6.12%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-27 18:59
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.10%E -3.70%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -4.49%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-27 18:59
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 57.25%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-27 18:59
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.88%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-27 18:59
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 57.78%EV -9.51%E -5.98%K -16.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-27 18:59
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-27 18:59
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-27 18:59
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -6.93%E -1.21%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-27 18:59
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.80%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -7.74%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-27 18:59
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 56.80%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -7.74%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-27 18:59
Codere (IT)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.63%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -9.36%E -1.67%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-27 18:59
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -5.53%E -3.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.71%EV -10.17%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.43%EV -9.06%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-27 18:59
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.70%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-27 18:58
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -8.38%E -5.20%K -13.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-27 18:58
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-27 18:59
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-27 18:59
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 55.62%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-06-27 18:59
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-27 18:59
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-27 19:00
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 18:59
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 18:59
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 18:59
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 18:59
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 18:59
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.37%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.88%EV -15.83%E -3.04%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-27 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.43%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.09%EV -19.07%E -3.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.48%EV -19.29%E -6.43%K -9.64%G +0.000%17.0%2026-06-27 18:59
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 53.33%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -20.69%E -4.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-27 18:49
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 53.84%EV -5.53%E -3.33%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -20.69%E -4.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -13.91%E -4.35%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-27 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 53.99%EV -6.10%E -3.70%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -20.69%E -4.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -13.91%E -4.35%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-27 18:59
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 54.14%EV -6.67%E -4.07%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.12%EV -20.69%E -4.22%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.74%EV -13.91%E -4.35%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-27 18:59
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 53.85%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -22.31%E -4.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.25%E -4.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-27 18:59
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 53.85%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -22.31%E -4.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.25%E -4.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-27 18:59
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 53.85%EV -7.24%E -4.44%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -22.31%E -4.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.25%E -4.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-27 18:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.86%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.69%1.1%2026-06-27 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.86%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.69%1.1%2026-06-27 18:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.1%2026-06-27 19:00
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 59.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.44%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02%1.2%2026-06-27 19:00
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.37%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81%2.0%2026-06-27 18:59