Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Criciuma v Juventude

Início: 2026-09-09 00:00 UTC

Final: Criciuma 0–2 Juventude

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Criciuma (Local)

Previsão 39.96%2.50odd justa
EV -2.10%
Vantagem -0.859%
Kelly -1.45%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.71%39.87%39.81%42.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.332.322.4546.51%42.93%43.10%40.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Juventude (Visitante)

Previsão 26.46%3.78odd justa
EV +1.06%
Vantagem +0.279%
Kelly +0.378%
Crescimento +0.004%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.06%26.57%26.57%28.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.123.443.443.8232.05%29.08%29.07%26.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 33.59%2.98odd justa
EV -2.60%
Vantagem -0.897%
Kelly -1.37%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.10%33.57%33.62%35.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.482.692.702.9040.32%37.14%37.04%34.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Criciuma (Local): 39.96%; Juventude (Visitante): 26.46%; Empate: 33.59%. Para Juventude (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.78. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.82, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.06%.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.29%EV -4.50%E -1.88%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.20%EV +1.06%E +0.279%K +0.378%G +0.004%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -6.30%E -2.26%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 23:50
BetUS🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.65%EV -2.90%E -1.19%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -0.787%E -0.210%K -0.286%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.66%EV -6.63%E -2.39%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-08 23:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -2.11%E -0.570%K -0.782%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 23:19
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -3.43%E -0.941%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.18%EV -9.99%E -3.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 23:20
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -3.43%E -0.941%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.18%EV -9.99%E -3.73%K -5.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 23:20
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.76%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:54
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.76%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-08 23:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -14.09%E -6.55%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -4.76%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 23:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.88%EV -5.28%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.70%EV -10.33%E -3.87%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 23:59
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.08%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 23:59
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.44%EV -6.50%E -2.78%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -6.08%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.56%EV -10.33%E -3.87%K -6.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 23:56
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.08%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 23:34
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:34
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:33
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:34
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -2.10%E -0.859%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.50%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.54%EV -11.67%E -4.44%K -7.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 23:49
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -12.01%E -4.58%K -7.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 23:50
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.63%EV -3.30%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.87%EV -7.93%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.50%EV -8.98%E -3.31%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 23:59
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -2.60%E -0.897%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.10%E -4.49%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-08 23:15
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 23:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 23:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 23:54
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -4.10%E -1.71%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.05%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -14.36%E -5.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-08 23:34
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -4.90%E -2.06%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -11.37%E -3.39%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.30%EV -14.36%E -5.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 23:35
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -4.10%E -1.71%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 23:55
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 23:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.09%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 23:14
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.09%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 23:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.09%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 23:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.09%E -5.50%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 23:14
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -16.04%E -6.41%K -10.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -6.10%E -2.60%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.69%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -16.04%E -6.41%K -10.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 23:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.10%E -1.71%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -14.02%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 23:55
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -14.02%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.75%EV -7.30%E -3.15%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.94%EV -14.02%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.31%EV -16.71%E -6.74%K -11.29%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 23:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.75%EV -7.30%E -3.15%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.94%EV -14.02%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.31%EV -16.71%E -6.74%K -11.29%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 23:35
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.34%E -4.79%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 23:55
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.81%EV -17.46%E -5.59%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 23:53
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -8.10%E -3.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.81%EV -17.46%E -5.59%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 23:53
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.33%0.5%2026-09-08 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.33%0.5%2026-09-08 23:55
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.75%0.6%2026-09-08 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.05%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.49%0.7%2026-09-08 23:55
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.53%1.3%2026-09-08 23:55