Language:English
Ceará v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 57.01%1.75fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -7.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%57.00%56.95%58.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.621.6764.52%62.00%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 16.50%6.06fair odd
EV +0.628%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.123%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 6.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.24%16.45%16.65%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.675.606.1020.00%17.63%17.86%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.50%3.77fair odd
EV -0.631%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.230%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%26.54%26.41%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.503.7532.26%28.95%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 57.01%; Vila Nova (Visit): 16.50%; Draw: 26.50%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.06. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.628%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -10.50%E -6.69%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -11.07%E -7.10%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.43%EV -6.51%E -3.97%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.18%EV -3.99%E -0.686%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.38%EV -5.40%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.10%EV -11.07%E -7.10%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.27%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.05%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.15%E -0.895%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.15%E -0.895%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-20 21:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 08:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 08:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.32%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.86%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.62%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.62%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -7.08%E -4.34%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.69%EV -8.44%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -0.631%E -0.168%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.30%EV -5.37%E -3.24%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.45%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 22:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 22:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-20 21:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-23 18:18 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.12%EV -9.93%E -6.29%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.71%EV -10.92%E -2.02%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.17%EV -7.08%E -4.34%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -17.52%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.84%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.15%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -17.52%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -17.86%E -5.76%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.05% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.15% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.80% | 16.6% | 2026-04-21 08:00 |