La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Ceará v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ceará (Local)
Predicción 57.01%1.75momio equitativo
EV -4.80%
Ventaja -2.88%
Kelly -7.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.15%57.00%56.95%58.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.611.621.6764.52%62.00%61.73%59.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 16.50%6.06momio equitativo
EV +0.628%
Ventaja +0.103%
Kelly +0.123%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.24%16.45%16.65%17.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.675.606.1020.00%17.63%17.86%16.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 26.50%3.77momio equitativo
EV -0.631%
Ventaja -0.168%
Kelly -0.230%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.93%26.54%26.41%28.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.453.503.7532.26%28.95%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Casumo | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| betPARX | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.07%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.628%E +0.103%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| Grosvenor | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -10.50%E -6.69%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -11.07%E -7.10%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -1.02%E -0.170%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.43%EV -6.51%E -3.97%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.18%EV -3.99%E -0.686%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.38%EV -5.40%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| TABtouch | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.10%EV -11.07%E -7.10%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.27%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-23 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -4.32%E -0.745%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.05%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.15%E -0.895%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| DraftKings | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.15%E -0.895%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-20 21:54 |
| Betsson | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 08:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 08:01 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.32%EV -11.64%E -7.51%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.86%EV -5.97%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Bovada | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.62%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| BetUS | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.62%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -7.08%E -4.34%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.69%EV -8.44%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Coolbet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| Betway | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.22%E -5.11%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -0.631%E -0.168%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| SportsBet | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.30%EV -5.37%E -3.24%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| 1xBet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.45%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 22:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 22:39 |
| 888sport | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:10 |
| William Hill | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| FanDuel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| theScore Bet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| betfred_uk | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
| BoyleSports | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-20 21:54 |
| Bet Victor | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.79%E -5.49%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -9.27%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.56%E -3.80%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-23 18:18 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.12%EV -9.93%E -6.29%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.71%EV -10.92%E -2.02%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -8.58%E -2.49%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| PlayUp | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.17%EV -7.08%E -4.34%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -17.52%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.84%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.15%EV -7.65%E -4.72%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -17.52%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -17.86%E -5.76%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-24 00:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (1)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.05% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.15% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.80% | 16.6% | 2026-04-21 08:00 |